The 2024 U.S. presidential race is more than just a clash of two very different personalities. When it comes to energy policy, the divide is just as deep, and may have an indirect impact on how Japan tilts its next strategic energy plan.

Voters in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, where natural gas fracking is a lifeline for many local economies, are almost evenly split. Their opinion on energy and climate issues might even decide the results in those swing states, which in turn will sway the entire election. Pennsylvania is the No. 2 gas producing state in the U.S., which relies on fracked wells for over 90% of its natural gas.

As during his time in the White House, Donald Trump remains a staunch supporter of the nation’s fossil fuel industry and is skeptical of clean energy initiatives pioneered and led by G7 partners. In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris is a loyal follower of the Democratic Party’s climate-oriented policies that have wide support among global institutions such as the United Nations, a body that Trump detests.

How that translates into voting, however, is less straightforward. For example, the majority of American states with a high percentage of wind power generation tend to vote Republican, even if overall support for renewable energy has slackened across the U.S. over the last five years.

Whatever the outcome of the Nov 5 election, it will have a strong impact on the narrative in global energy markets and climate dialogue. As far as Japan, among the items to watch will be White House policy on LNG exports, as well as the future of ‘green’ tax credits related to clean tech investment.