After years of planning, new hydrogen and ammonia projects in Japan were expected to get the green light in 2024 with the rollout of state subsidies. Industry expectations were high and potential exporters from Asia, the Middle East, North America and Australia have been on high alert to sales opportunities.

Progress remains uneven, however. While the Diet passed the Hydrogen Society Promotion Act in May, taking effect last week, on Oct 23, before the promised November deadline, key details on when the application process for state subsidies begins, and some other parameters, still remain unclear. According to ANRE, these will take “a little longer.”

Example sheets in the application forms suggest that METI still envisages subsidies to flow into the hydrogen and ammonia supply chains in the near future. People familiar with the subsidy procedures, however, now admit that recent political upheaval in Japan, and to a small extent the upcoming U.S. election, have put progress on pause. It would be a major, positive surprise if even one subsidy is awarded this year.

Since Kishida’s August announcement not to seek reelection as head of the ruling LDP, politics have taken priority over policy considerations in Tokyo. Ishiba won the most crowded LDP leadership race in recent decades, only to face lukewarm popularity soon after taking office. Ishiba immediately called for a general election to cement his position, but early indications show that the Oct 27 election could weaken the LDP’s control of the Diet.

As the next steps for Ishiba and his Cabinet are uncertain, and the U.S. presidential vote due in a week, few see the METI minister signing off on any major hydrogen developments in the immediate future.