As Japan braces for the outcome of Round 3 offshore wind tenders, industry insiders are growing restless. Incremental tweaks to the auction framework over recent years have sought to address pricing and timeline issues, but many worry that these measured adjustments fall short of the urgency needed to meet the country’s ambitious 2030 sector target.

So far, Japan has made only modest progress in offshore wind development, with a total installed capacity of 153.5 MW by the end of 2023. This includes a mix of both fixed-bottom and floating turbines, but just two wind farms account for the bulk of that capacity. 

A best-case scenario would see about 5.7 GW of offshore wind projects operating in Japan by the end of FY2030 – based on the capacity awarded in the first three rounds of tenders. But, this is almost half of the original 10 GW national target. More importantly, it risks presenting Japan as a less attractive market for developers at a time when others in Asia are embarking on ambitious offshore wind programs.

Preparations for Round 4 are adding to the doubts. The three sites expected to be involved are currently at a preliminary stage of readiness, and require environmental and foundational assessments before they can be opened to full-scale bidding. The timeline for selecting operators has not yet been announced.

Despite efforts by METI and MLIT to refine regulatory frameworks and streamline the bidding process, the uncertainties and supply chain frustrations are giving some developers pause about Japan’s potential. Will the government be able to bring the industry back on track?