When Donald Trump takes office on January 20, it’s clear that he will be a far more aggressive and determined nationalist president, on all major issues, than during his first term in office from January 2017 to January 2021. In addition, he is eager to take revenge on his political enemies and to severely weaken the legacy of the outgoing Biden administration.
Topping his list of priorities is energy, due to its pivotal role in boosting American economic competitiveness in global markets. This is especially crucial in the context of the revolution in Artificial Intelligence and growing demand for semiconductor chips, as well as ambitious plans to reindustrialize America after decades of industrial production moving overseas.
Trump is calling for “unleashing American energy,” centered around oil which he describes as “liquid gold.” There will be a drastic pivot away from the Democratic Party’s climate-centric policies. Instead, the main emphasis will be on a return to the primacy of fossil fuels, cooperating with the private sector to boost oil and gas production and undoing state regulations that Trump perceives as too restrictive and injurious to economic growth.
Nevertheless, while Trump’s energy plan signals a rollback of climate-focused policies, the economic momentum of renewables, buttressed by the many state-level and industry initiatives, will temper the impact of policies favoring fossil fuels. The traditional U.S. oil and gas majors also see the need to build new businesses aligned with net zero world aspirations.
Global economic dominance is the ultimate goal of Trump’s populist “Make America Great Again” agenda, especially with an eye to staying ahead of China. However, even staunch allies such as Japan will have to be on their toes since all aspects of China-related investments and cooperation – of which Japanese energy firms have quite a few, especially in hydrogen – will be reexamined by the Trump 2.0 White House.