
May 31, 2021
NEWS
TOP
ENERGY TRANSITION & POLICY
ELECTRICITY MARKETS
OIL, GAS & MINING
ANALYSIS
LNG CONTRACT DESTINATION CLAUSE
DRAWS REGULATORY CONCERN, AGAIN
In Japan, January’s rapid rise in LNG prices stirred more than just anxiety over costs. After years of silence on the issue, the government is once again turning its eye to the contract terms of international LNG purchases. Japanese firms and officials have discussed bringing more flexibility to purchasing terms for years, winning some minor concessions from sellers in the process. The events that sparked a 1,680% rally in LNG prices over six months to January 2021, however, raised major alarm bells. The thinking is that while Japan still has its world-leading position in the market, and influence over Asia trade, it needs to act. A new review has been launched.
HYDROPOWER IS BACK IN FAVOR AS EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS, SHIFT TO EVS RENEW INTEREST
One of the biggest immediate beneficiaries of Japan’s more active decarbonization agenda, so far, has been hydropower. In recent months, most major domestic power utilities have unveiled corporate and household plans offering predominantly, or only, electricity derived from hydro. An energy source that’s often been considered stable but largely tapped-out, hydro is experiencing a revival. At a recent government meeting, utilities revealed plans to build at least six new hydropower stations within four years and also expand capacity at existing plants. Some of this hydro might even help Japan make hydrogen.
GLOBAL VIEW
Black Wednesday in Big Oil as Shell, Exxon and Chevron suffer setbacks. Carbon price tools raised $53B during 2020. Total changes its name. EU prepares sanctions on Belarus energy products.
Details on these and more in our global wrap.
2021 EVENT CALENDAR
DATA SECTION
PUBLISHER
K. K. Yuri Group
Sponsored
Editorial Team
Yuriy Humber (Editor-in-Chief)
Tom O’Sullivan (Japan, Middle East, Africa)
John Varoli (Americas)
Regular Contributors
Mayumi Watanabe (Japan)
Daniel Shulman (Japan)
Takehiro Masutomo (Japan)
Art & Design
22 Graphics Inc.
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OFTEN USED ACRONYMS
METI The Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry
ANRE Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
NEDO New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization
TEPCO Tokyo Electric Power Company
KEPCO Kansai Electric Power Company
EPCO Electric Power Company
JCC Japan Crude Cocktail
JKM Japan Korea Market, the Platt’s LNG benchmark
CCUS Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage
mmbtu Million British Thermal Units
mb/d Million barrels per day
mtoe Million Tons of Oil Equivalent
kWh Kilowatt hours (electricity generation volume)
Japan’s parliament passes the carbon neutrality act
(Hokkoku Shimbun, May 26)
TAKEAWAY: The politicians have done their part and decarbonization action is now enshrined in Japanese law. But, how decarbonization will take place is the bigger challenge, and the public policy and business communities are divided on the issue. See the next news item and our comment for details.
Confusion over Japan’s energy mix target
(World Economic Review, May 24)
TAKEAWAY: We are all awaiting the new Basic Energy Plan from METI, due in late June or early July. Whatever it says, most people are likely to be disappointed. One of the reasons is the divergence between views on the energy future. Another is the enormity of the challenge that comes with meeting recent decarbonization pledges. Though it is often used in a positive sense, “disruption” in energy is a lot more painful and broader in its economic reach than for the tech sector.
As Prof. Kikkawa’s piece suggests, there is strong resistance in Japan’s industry and bureaucracy to shifting entirely to solar and wind. Equally, there is a vocal pro-renewables corporate voice that does not accept such resistance. The Basic Energy Plan, in theory, should stop these tensions and unify the country in pursuit of decarbonization goals. In reality, it may do the opposite, exposing the ever-growing divisions. That, in turn, may lead to organizational restructuring. Companies will split off “green” units. Government agencies will demarcate along their views on climate action. Responsibility for energy policy, research and funding have always been spread across several entities in Japan, but most of these have been under the METI umbrella. That’s unlikely to satisfy green activists for much longer.
Tidal generation system gets official approval
(Smart Japan, May 24)
German ESG platform creates list that names and shames Japan’s polluters
(Nikkei, May 27)
TAKEAWAY: This kind of consumer-led boycott is not a strategy that has traditionally worked in Japan. Few campaigns are successful and even fewer are energy / climate-related. However, the younger generation in the country are more attuned to the message. The current list of big polluters does not provide an easy consumer product to target. Still, such a campaign may be successful in dissuading some of Japan’s brightest new grads from joining these companies. That is something businesses would take notice of.
Japan to boost hydrogen refueling station count sixfold by 2030; EV charger units also
(Nikkei, May 29)
Toyota CEO warns that a total switch to EVs would kill 1M jobs; Tests Hydrogen Racer
(Asia Nikkei, May 25)
Japan raises 2030 energy saving targets for industry
(Japan NRG, May 21)
METI calls on industry to boost supply chains with allied nations
(Nikkei, May 24)
Kawasaki Heavy unveils world’s first liquid hydrogen transporter
(Sankei News, May 24)
Tokyo Gas and Screen Holdings partner on electrolytic cell stack technology
(New Energy Business News, May 27)
Tesla to enter Japan market with grid storage batteries for renewables projects
(Nikkei, May 27)
Japan’s top bank for agriculture sets aside $92B for ESG projects
(Nikkei, May 25)
TEPCO to create $92M fund to invest in promising SMEs to expand returns
(Nikkei Shimbun, May 27)
Nissan to build EV battery plants in Japan and UK
(Nikkei, May 28)
Mitsubishi Power and Iberdrola establish industrial decarbonization venture
(Kankyo Business, May 24)
|
No. of operable nuclear reactors |
33 | |
|
of which |
applied for restart |
25 |
|
approved by regulator |
16 | |
|
restarted |
9 | |
|
in operation today |
7 | |
|
|
able to use MOX fuel |
4 |
|
No. of nuclear reactors under construction |
3 | |
|
No. of reactors slated for decommissioning |
27 | |
|
of which |
completed work |
1 |
|
started process |
4 | |
|
|
yet to start / not known |
22 |
Spot Electricity Prices, Monthly Avg.

Source: Company websites, JANSI and JAIF, as of May. 21, 2021
METI calls for restart of idled LNG plants
(Nikkei, May 24)
TAKEAWAY: METI is also asking utilities to be better stocked with fuel for this summer, especially on LNG, be more cautious on plant shutdowns and maintenance schedules, and gently prodding consumers to be aware of their energy use. But more extreme measures will be needed if this summer turns out as hot as is currently being forecast.
Interesting, METI’s power and gas panel has also urgent power market participants to lean more heavily on the futures markets to hedge, something the ministry has not really pressed before. This bodes well for the power derivatives markets being run by TOCOM and EEX, among others.
JERA, IHI win grant and the two start trials of ammonia as a co-firing fuel
(Company statements, May 24)
Japan’s IHI enters Small Modular Reactor market by buying into NuScale
(Company Statements, Nikkei, May 27)
TAKEAWAY: SMRs have already been mentioned by the government in the Green Growth Strategy, without details. Notable involvement of two major Japanese engineering firms in the U.S. project in Idaho suggests the technology could be on its way to Japan pending successful NuScale operations at the maiden plant. Still, we are unlikely to see SMR construction start in Japan this decade.
Cosmo Energy, Acacia, Hitachi Zosen set up JV for 600 MW Aomori offshore wind project
(New Energy Business News, May 28)
Government moves to create Japan’s own offshore wind manufacturers
(Nikkei, May 24)
J Power invests in Australia’s renewable energy developer Genex
(Kankyo Business, May 21)
Kansai Electric sets date for restart of Ooi NPP’s Unit 3 after extra maintenance work
(Denki Shimbun, May 26)
TAKEAWAY: If there are no unexpected problems, Kansai Electric should have at least six of its seven reactors back online mid-summer. Mihama NPP Unit 3 is due online June 23. Takahama NPP Unit 1 has also finished loading fuel into the core and is gearing up for a restart. This would be a boon not only to the utility itself but the broader nuclear industry in Japan, which has not had more than 9 reactors online at the same time since shortly after the Fukushima accident a decade ago.
Toshiba to acquire power plant monitoring software operation
(New Energy Business News, May 27)
Kyocera, Rexev and Shonan Power sign regional micro-grid agreement
(New Energy Business News, May 27)
Kyuden Mirai Energy to produce biomass pellets in Laos
(New Energy Business News, May 26)
Japan Oil Price: $66.26/ barrel

Japan (JLC) LNG Price: $7.56/ mmbtu

Shell sells LNG to Japan in exchange for electricity, seeking arbitrage profits
(Bloomberg, May 28)
Idemitsu, ENEOS worry how to fill earnings hole post fossil fuel exit
(Nikkei Business, May 24)
BY MAYUMI WATANABE
LNG Contracts’ `Destination Clause’
Draws Regulatory Concerns, Again
In Japan, January’s rapid rise in LNG prices stirred more than just anxiety over costs. After years of silence on the issue, the government is once again turning its eye to the contract terms of international LNG purchases.
Japanese firms and officials have discussed bringing more flexibility to purchasing terms for years, winning some minor concessions from sellers in the process. The events that sparked a 1,680% rally in LNG prices over six months to January 2021, however, raised major alarm bells. The thinking is that while Japan still has its world-leading position in the market, and influence over Asia trade, it needs to act.
An oil and gas ministry panel last month asked for a follow-up to the 2017 study into LNG long-term contract terms that was conducted by the Japanese competition authority. The stated rationale: a need to improve LNG market liquidity.
A matter of anti-trust
LNG contracts typically bind buyers to receiving a certain volume (number of cargos) of the fuel at certain times and at a specified location. Most also correlate the price to that of oil, the degree of which is known as the slope.
In June 2017, the Japan Fair Trade Commission (JFTC) presented a report after a thorough review of clauses typically inserted in long-term contracts for LNG imported to Japan. The Commission noted that some of the contract terms may not fully comply with Japan’s domestic competition law.
The following month, Japan and the European Commission signed a Memorandum of Cooperation to develop a competitive and liberalized LNG market. The two agreed to work together to ensure flexibility in LNG contracts. After all, as another major buy of LNG the EC also wanted more freedom in terms of how, when and for how much its companies could receive cargos. The EC had been working on reviews of LNG contracts as far back as 2000.
The JFTC and EC saw a chance to pool forces and both labeled the destination and profit-sharing clauses in LNG contracts as competition concerns. Destination clauses limit the buyer’s capacity to resell or change the delivery destinations of cargoes. If an LNG buyer does find another party for its contracted amount, a profit-sharing clause would make them share revenue from the re-sale with the original supplier.
The EC’s main targets were Russia (Gazprom), Nigeria (Nigeria LNG), and Algeria (Sonatrach), and it carried out formal investigations into the actions of these and other LNG suppliers within its jurisdiction. The bloc then ordered sellers to remove destination and profit-sharing clauses from their contracts with European buyers.
The JFTC took a less dictatorial approach, perhaps mindful of the fact that LNG accounted for a much higher percentage of Japan’s domestic energy needs.
So, Japan’s antitrust officials carried out a fact-finding survey, which refers to an inquiry that seeks to correctly understand the background and context of the sector. Such surveys do not identify violations of the law as such, but provide general guidelines on how to improve antitrust compliance within the sector.
While the EC’s findings were used as a basis to engage with corresponding governments and talk EU competition law, the JFTC did not get further than publishing its study. The Japanese regulators didn’t even set out any guidelines.
The JFTC’s 2017 report was careful not to inflame the LNG suppliers. It concluded that destination, profit-sharing and “take-or-pay” clauses – where buyers pay for volumes they commit to, rather than volumes they actually receive – were potential competition issues. But they were not “potential law infringement”.
Without anyone breaking the law, there was no scope for further regulatory action.
Playing a weak hand
Of course, Japanese power and gas utilities tried to use the JFTC report as leverage to negotiate further flexibility in delivery terms with new suppliers. However, the terms for the vast majority of supply, which depended on contracts signed before 2017, remained unchanged, according to studies by the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, and Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting. These studies were contracted by METI.
The studies showed that most Japanese LNG buyers did not feel confident to reopen negotiations for existing contracts. Of Japan’s 14 buyers, only Tokyo Gas and JERA attempted to renegotiate outstanding contract terms. Most of the rest feared that doing so would strain relations with suppliers, and the JFTC study did not exactly provide the strongest of openers at the negotiating table.
A year after the report was published, Tokyo Gas, JERA, and also Osaka Gas and Toho Gas started to report success in signing new contracts with North American and Mexican suppliers that were “destination-free”. This trend, however, was more due to the market conditions of that time rather than regulatory pressure, confides one LNG contract expert.
The U.S. was reaching out to Asia to establish new outlets for its shale gas products. Buyers had more bargaining power in some regions due to oversupply, and in some cases were able to take advantage of price arbitrage across regions.
Meanwhile, the Japanese buyers kept developments in their contracts very secret, leaving officials wondering if there had been any progress on improving the delivery flexibility. An expert on the subject said that aside from the destination clause, there are other contractual mechanisms preventing flexible LNG transactions, such as the profit-sharing clause and the take-or-pay principle.
Asked about destination clauses and other contract terms at last week’s Japan LNG & Gas Digital Session, run by dmg, Takeuchi Atsunori, an Executive Officer at Tokyo Gas’s LNG Business Department said: “We are currently making efforts to raise our negotiating power with vendors.”
The new white knight
As this debate over LNG clauses re-opens in Japan there is a change in approach. This time, the METI panel is due to commission Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) to lead the charge and follow up on the JFTC study.
This is odd because while JOGMEC is a state-backed company it is not a regulatory organ. JOGMEC surveys geographical, mining and financing conditions. It does not seem to have the authority to uncover details of multi-national contracts, which are protected by confidentiality clauses.
There are many other questions about Japan’s strategy this time around. For one, the government panel seems focused only on the destination clauses, rather than all of the previously stated terms. And yet, it would be almost impossible to review only one set of clauses in a contract. Moreover, it might be misleading to do so as other parts of the document could give a different context to the destination issue.
Finally, will Japanese buyers gladly offer up their contractual information to JOGMEC at the risk of being identified by the sellers?
Still, where JOGMEC has an advantage over antitrust officials is its line of contact. It should be able to talk directly and cooperatively with high-level company officials at buyer companies.
Ultimately, if JOGMEC uncovers issues that could be interpreted as Antimonopoly Act violations and causes of distorting local market competition, it can request the JFTC to open an investigation. That investigation process can take around a year or two, and while it is ongoing it offers Japanese buyers a shield in new negotiations.
Moves by the JFTC may also trigger competition authorities in the U.S. and other Asian countries to take up the issue, according to METI.
As recent antitrust raids by the JFTC against Japanese power and gas utilities show, the regulators are starting to get very interested in not only the fuels (such as LNG) but also the electricity market itself. How the strategy will evolve is not yet clear, but the first move has been made.
BY YURIY HUMBER
Emission Reduction, Shift to EVs
Driving Renewed Interest in Hydro in Japan
One of the biggest immediate beneficiaries of Japan’s more active decarbonization agenda, so far, has been hydropower. In recent months, most major domestic power utilities have unveiled corporate and household plans offering predominantly, or only, electricity derived from hydro.
An energy source that’s often been considered stable but largely tapped-out, hydro is experiencing somewhat of a revival. At a recent government meeting, utilities revealed plans to build at least six new hydropower stations within four years and also expand capacity at four existing plants by FY2022.
One of the country’s biggest owners of hydro facilities has set a target for the renewable source to hit 30% of its total energy production within a decade. Some of that hydro might even go to a burgeoning hydrogen manufacturing facility in the area, helping Japan open up more sources of supply for CO2-free (green) hydrogen.
Rising demand for blue ‘green’ electricity
Hydropower ticks many boxes. Small and medium sized hydropower plants are classified as a renewable resource. In Japan, hydro plants with a capacity of 5 MW or more deliver electricity for less than the average cost of wind or solar (for more details see the Feb. 15, 2021 issue of Japan NRG Weekly).
Over the last five decades hydro has proven to be a reliable resource, providing Japan with a stable volume of energy, and since at least the mid 1990s hydro’s share in the national electricity mix has hovered at around 9%. In terms of installed hydropower capacity, Japan has around 49 GW, a fifth of which is in small and medium-sized stations.
What’s more, dams act as systems for flood control and local water management, and help protect against landslides. These factors endear hydropower not only to the METI but also the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), which championed the idea of a dam upgrades program in 2017.
The introduction of Feed-In Tariffs (FIT) in 2012 to spur growth in renewables mostly promoted the development of solar and wind, but it also helped add 670 MW of small-to-medium-sized hydro capacity. As of May 2021, projects that could add an additional 1.42 GW are already approved under FIT.
Outside FIT, a further 232 MW of hydropower stations, each with capacity of 30 MW or less, is said to be under development.
Hokuriku Electric, a utility servicing central Japan and based in Toyama prefecture, announced plans to raise hydropower to 30% of its power mix by FY2030, from 28% today.
Incidentally, Toyama is also home to a new continuous hydrogen production facility being developed by aluminum maker Alhytec Inc. Working with Toyota Motor, the company has tested a method of manufacturing hydrogen from a reaction solution fueled by aluminum shavings. If powered by Hokuriku Electric’s hydro, the hydrogen that Alhytec and Toyota make would be classified as ‘green’.
The country could add 573 MW of new, small-to-medium hydro capacity by FY2030 and expand existing facilities by 56 MW in the coming nine years, according to an assessment by four public and business groups associated with the industry, including the National Small Hydropower Utilization Promotion Council, published by Shin Energy Shimpo. That would push smaller hydro’s electricity output to 2.5 billion kWh, up from 2.26 billion kWh.
New Cars, New Electricity
In the last six months, another key demand driver for hydro has emerged. To promote the switch to electric vehicles, the government is offering as much as ¥800,000 ($7,300) in subsidies for an EV purchase. However, in order to qualify, buyers are required to power their autos with electricity from renewable sources.
As a growing number of corporate clients inquire about ‘green’ electricity, Japan’s regional power utilities, which have to date mostly avoided investing in solar and onshore wind, are turning to hydro-generated electricity packages to meet the demand.
Chubu Electric Power Miraiz went as far as to announce on May 27 that it will pump all profits from its Shinshu Green Power electricity plan, which is based on hydro, into new renewables projects in Nagano prefecture. New hydro features heavily in Chubu Electric’s plans for the mountainous region.
Even ENEOS, better known as an oil refining group, is getting into the sale of electricity from hydro. The company registered to be a sales agent for several hydro stations owned by the city of Tokyo and now retails water generated power to corporate clients.
Hydro plants are also attracting smaller electricity retail firms, which market the energy as a locally made, locally sold product, which is also CO2-free.
The idea of local revitalization, much discussed by the government but rarely executed, fits well with the idea of developing more small, local hydro resources. And, unlike the growing list of municipalities introducing ordinances against solar and wind farms, hydro also has strong support from local governments.
A notable portion of the country’s hydro resources lies in the hands of the local authorities. Developing more hydro helps them demonstrate steps towards carbon neutrality, while also supporting a business that contributes to the local economy.
The authorities in Gunma prefecture, for example, have joined with TEPCO Energy Partners to create a CO2-free electricity plan based on power generated at local hydro facilities owned by the government. The electricity is marketed to local businesses, including factories of major companies such as Meidensha Corp. The prefecture has even vowed to plough extra profits from hydro electricity sales into local conservation projects.
More cost effective than solar and wind, hydro is increasingly the preferred ‘green’ energy choice for both large and small power firms that are keen to market an emissions free energy source as ‘locally made’. Equally significant is the fact that hydro is the one energy source that doesn’t arouse controversy and conflict with local governments.
With so many advantages, what’s hindering hydro from capturing a greater share of Japan’s national energy mix? The first problem is scale: building lots of small hydro generating capacity is not as cost effective as larger installations. Major utilities prefer to undertake gigawatt-scale energy projects, not many small ones.
Nevertheless, hydro is an energy source with significant potential, and despite the structural limitations it’s getting more attention than a year ago. As Japan strives to meet its ambitious 2030 and 2050 emissions goal, the country’s hydro power capacity looks set to grow.
|
Utility |
Electricity Plan based on Hydro |
Corporate (C) or Household (H) |
|
Chubu Electric Miraiz |
Shinshu Green Power |
C and H |
|
TEPCO EP |
Aqua Energy 100 |
H |
|
TEPCO EP |
Aqua Premium |
C |
|
Hokuriku Electric |
Aqua Eco Plan |
C and H |
|
Hokuriku Electric |
Aqua Green |
C and H |
|
Hokuriku Electric |
Toyama Water Town |
C |
|
Chugoku Electric |
Okayama CO2-Free Power |
C and H |
|
Kyushu Electric |
Renewable ECO Plan |
C |
|
Tohoku Electric |
Eco Power Premium |
C and H |
|
Tohoku Electric |
Iwate Revival Power Hydro Premium |
C |
|
Tohoku Electric |
Akita E-ne! Option 100% Hydro |
C |
|
Tohoku Electric |
Yamagata Hydro Premium |
C |
Source: Shin Energy Shimpo
BY TOM O’SULLIVAN
Below are some of last week’s most important international energy developments monitored by the Japan NRG team because of their potential to impact energy supply and demand, as well as prices. We see the following as relevant to Japanese and international energy investors.
Oil & Gas: Black Wednesday
The fossil fuels industry suffered three major setbacks last Wednesday, a day now described as one of the worst in its history
1). A Dutch court ruled that Royal Dutch Shell must cut carbon emissions 45% by 2030 vs. 2019 levels;
2). at Exxon, shareholders backed an activist investor resolution that warned of an “existential risk” because of the oil major’s exclusive focus on fossil fuels; over $60 million was spent on promoting the resolution; and
3). Chevron shareholders voted for a resolution that called for a significant reduction in Scope 3 CO2 emissions.
IEA:
Australia and Japan, both OECD member countries that fund the IEA, are vigorously disputing the findings of a recent IEA report on reaching net zero by 2050, which called for a complete and immediate end to fossil fuel exploration and spending on new oil, gas, and coal projects.
Cryptocurrencies:
1). Crypto miners in the U.S. are sending mobile trailers with super computers to oil fields to access natural gas to generate cheap electricity for crypto mining purposes, avoiding flaring of natural gas.
2). South Korea may ban up to 200 crypto exchanges as it tightens regulations and removes licenses.
3). Iran has banned bitcoin mining to preserve scarce electricity.
Finance:
The Biden administration is considering establishing a “United States Green Bank” and a “National Climate Bank” as direct financing conduits for green investments.
Global Carbon Pricing:
The 64 global carbon pricing instruments in place are now thought to have raised $53 billion in revenues in 2020 according to the World Bank.
Cap & Trade:
Climate Vault, a U.S. non-profit, is looking to create a secondary market that would allow companies to offset carbon emissions with pollution permits.
EVs:
1). Ford will raise capital spending on EVs to $30 billion and plans to make EVs account for 40% of global sales by 2030.
2). The U.S. EV maker, Fisker, has signed a letter of intent with Scandinavia’s Mekonomen Group to provide after sales services in the region.
3). The U.S. Senate is expected to approve an EV vehicle tax credit of $12,500 for EVs assembled by union workers inside the U.S.
4). Tesla is expected to prepay for semiconductor chips to secure supply in the ever-tightening market, including with suppliers in South Korea and Taiwan.
Wind Power:
The U.S. is considering two Californian projects on the Pacific, at Morro Bay and off Humboldt County, that could power up to 1.6 million homes. These would be the first wind power investments on the Pacific.
Climate:
The World Meteorological Organization now predicts a 40% chance that the mean global temperature will exceed 1.5 C in one of the next five years.
Aviation Fuel:
The EU is planning to introduce a Europe-wide tax on jet fuel as it attempts to meet its goal of a 55% cut in CO2 by 2030.
China:
The National Development and Reform Commission threatened punishment for metals traders as copper, aluminum, iron ore and steel prices soared to 10-year highs with iron ore prices reached $230 per ton and copper prices reaching $5 per pound.
South Korea:
Hyundai Hydrogen Mobility (HHM) is planning to ship a new series of fuel cell trucks, the Xcient Hyundai truck, to Europe later this year as the company ramps up hydrogen investments. HHM is a joint venture with Switzerland’s H2 Energy.
Australia:
An Australian Federal court has ruled that the government must ensure that newly approved coal projects won’t pose a threat to the health of children.
India:
Renault, Nissan, and Hyundai are suspending local manufacturing due to Covid-19.
Iran:
The speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, announced that a temporary deal between the IAEA and Iran to preserve satellite images at Iranian nuclear facilities had ended. The IAEA is warning that Iran is enriching uranium at “bomb-making levels”, endangering the possibility of Iran’s return to international oil markets.
Abu Dhabi:
The oil-rich emirate sold $2 billion in seven-year bonds last week at 45 bps over U.S. treasuries in its first bond financing of 2021.
Saudi Arabia:
The government is planning a $55 billion privatization program over the next four years involving 160 projects in 16 sectors to address a growing budget deficit.
Russia:
President Biden is scheduled to meet with President Putin on June 16. This comes in the wake of cyber-attacks on U.S. oil and technology infrastructure, which are thought to have originated inside Russia.
Belarus:
EU is preparing to sanction $4 billion of Belarusian exports of oil, petrochemicals, potash, and metals in retaliation for the grounding of the Ryanair jet in Minsk, and the detention of dissident blogger Roman Protasevich.
Sweden:
H2 Green Steel raised over $100 million in its first funding round with the Maersk, Wallenberg, and Agnelli families as investors. The company plans to commence green steel production by 2024 just below the Arctic Circle with a target production of 5 million tonnes.
Norway/Denmark:
Three Hedge Funds, Taconic Capital, CQS, and Kite Capital, are attempting to turn around Denmark’s second largest oil and gas producer, Noreco, that is facing financial difficulties because of low oil prices. Noreco is hoping to double Danish oil production by 2023. Noreco also bought Shell’s Danish upstream assets in 2018.
Greece:
A forest fire last weekend in the Geraneia mountains, 90 km west of Athens, is now described as an “ecological disaster on an immense scale”, and the first major forest fire of the summer with 55 sq km of pine forest destroyed.
France:
Total, the French oil and gas giant, with a market capitalization of over $120 billion, changed its name to TotalEnergies as it expands and broadens activities as part of the global energy transition.
Arctic:
Paul Bledsoe, a former member of the White House Climate Change Task Force, is calling for a ban on Russia’s plan to develop the Arctic’s oil and gas resources.
U.S.:
1). Cimarex Energy and Cabot Oil & Gas, with shale energy assets in the Permian and Marcellus fields, will merge to create a company with an enterprise value of $17 billion and a combined market capitalization of $14 billion.
2). The TSA is considering mandatory rules for U.S. pipeline operators to provide notice of cyber-attacks following the attack on the Colonial pipeline.
3). Vertex Energy will buy Mobile refinery from Shell for $75 million. The refinery has a capacity of 90,000 bpd.
4). Tellurian signed an agreement with Gunvor to deliver 3 million tons of LNG per annum over the next 10 years.
Brazil:
Tarcisio Gomes de Freitas, Brazil’s infrastructure minister, announced $50 billion in one-off investments in railways, highways, airports, and ports, which is equivalent to 30 years of Brazilian public infrastructure investment.
A selection of domestic and international events we believe will have an impact on Japanese energy.
|
February |
Approval of Fiscal 2021 Budget by Japanese parliament including energy funding projects; CMC LNG Conference |
|
March |
10th Anniversary of Fukushima Nuclear Accident; Smart Energy Week – Tokyo; Quarterly OPEC Meeting; Japan LPG Annual Conference; Full completion of all aspects of the multi-year deregulation of Japan’s electricity market; End of 2020/21 Fiscal Year in Japan; |
|
April |
Japan Atomic Industrial Forum – Annual Nuclear Power Conference; 38th ASEAN Annual Conference-Brunei; Japan LNG & Gas Virtual Summit (DMG)-Tokyo Three crucial by-elections in Hokkaido, Nagano & Hiroshima – April 25th |
|
May |
Bids close in first tender for commercial offshore wind projects in Japan; Prime Minister Suga to visit the U.S. |
|
June |
Release of New Japan National Basic Energy Plan-2021; G7 Meeting – U.K. Presidents Biden and Putin are due to meet at a summit in Geneva Forum for China-Africa Cooperation Summit (Senegal) |
|
July |
Tokyo Metropolitan Govt. Assembly Elections; Commencement of 2020 Tokyo Olympics |
|
August |
Hydrogen Ministerial Conference in conjunction with IEA |
|
September |
Ruling LDP Presidential Election; UN General Assembly Annual Meeting that is expected to address energy/climate challenges; IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings (multilateral and central banks expected to take further action on emissions disclosures and lending to fossil fuel projects); End of H1 FY2021 Fiscal Year in Japan; Japan-Russia: Eastern Economic Forum (Vladivostok)-tentative |
|
October |
Last possible month for holding Japan’s 2021 General Election; METI Sponsored LNG Producer/Consumer Conference; Innovation for Cool Earth Forum – Tokyo Conference; Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) – Tokyo Conference; G20 Meeting-Italy |
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November |
COP26 (Glasgow); Asian Development Bank (‘ADB’) Annual Conference; Japan-Canada Energy Forum; East Asia Summit (EAS) – Brunei |
|
December |
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum – New Zealand; Final details expected from METI on proposed unbundling of natural gas pipeline network scheduled for 2022. |
Japan Oil Price

Crude Imports Vs Processed Crude

Monthly Oil Import Volume (Mbpd)

Monthly Crude Processed (Mbpd)

Domestic Fuel Sales

SOURCES: Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), Ministry of Finance, and the Petroleum Association of Japan
Japan LNG Price

LNG Imports: Japan Total vs Gas Utilities Only

Total LNG Imports (M t)

LNG Imports by Gas Firms Only (M t)

City Gas Sales – Total (M m3)

City Gas Sales by Sector (M m3)

SOURCES: Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI),
Ministry of Finance
Japan Total Power Demand (GWh)

Current Vs Historical Demand (GWh)

Day-Ahead Spot Electricity Prices

Day-Ahead Vs Day Time Vs Peak Time

LNG Imports by Electricity Utilities

LNG Stockpiles of Electricity Utilities

SOURCES: Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), and the Japan Electric Power Exchange
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NEWS
・Japan’s parliament passes carbon neutrality act that calls on the country’s decarbonization by 2050; govt. pinning hopes on solid-state batteries and hydrogen, among others
・METI asks utilities to restart idled LNG plants, warns of potential power shortages this summer; Hokkaido to help cover mainland
・Shells sells LNG to Japan utility in exchange for physical electricity