With the release of the draft Basic Energy Plan last week, most eyes are on the future. Where does Japan’s government and experts see the nation developing over the next decades? Is the country still on course for net-zero by 2050, as mandated by law? 

These questions of strategy are important and fascinating, but energy is a sector that relies on small, ongoing progress – the little victories – to evolve. The change that actually occurs is rarely prophesied in 100-page presentations. The IEA’s infamous record of failing to predict the speed of solar PV development in almost every one of its reports over the past 15 years can attest to how difficult it is to divine the course of the energy sector.

This overview of Japan’s energy sector takes on a simpler task: to record some of these tiny victories and include the near-term events that drive each form of power generation. As the below shows, it was far from a quiet year.