Electricity prices in the Tokyo region remain stubbornly high, and the reason is not just a weak yen. TEPCO, the main power supply to the most populous and industrial region in Japan, continues to operate without a single nuclear reactor – all while national plans call for nuclear’s share to be at 20% of the mix within five years.

The situation is unlikely to change for the next six months, and may not shift for a year or more. Japan’s nuclear revival is still hostage to politics and public opinion, and nowhere is this more apparent than in the Niigata Prefecture, which hosts the reactors that supply Tokyo. Governor Hanazumi’s ability to draw out his decision on the restart of TEPCO’s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP is nothing if not impressive.

This absence carries a hefty price tag. Without the NPP, TEPCO must rely more heavily on LNG and coal-fired power. In FY2024, the firm’s profits plunged 40% and free cash flow remained deeply negative for a seventh year. A restart of even one reactor could swing the balance: by TEPCO’s own estimates – one unit would add ¥100 billion in annual profit and ease pressure on spot electricity prices.

Hope flickered in April when Kashiwazaki-Kariwa’s Unit 6 won support under OCCTO’s LTDA, a subsidy scheme for zero-emission capacity. For the first time, the auction opened up to reactor safety upgrade work at existing sites; three reactors were selected: Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Unit 6; Tokai No. 2 (JAPC); and Tomari Unit 3 (Hokkaido Electric).