Since returning to the White House in January 2025, President Donald Trump’s energy agenda has materialized almost exactly as promised on the campaign trail – just as Japan NRG described in an analytical article in December 2024.

Drawing from executive orders and agency directives, Trump has “unleashed American energy” by prioritizing oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear power (with a sprinkling of fusion) for their large-scale, dispatchable qualities, while scaling back support for renewables such as wind and solar. The goal is to feed the AI boom and reindustrialize the U.S. to take on China.

What few could predict a year ago, however, is that Trump’s energy policy is now betting on something larger: a new era of U.S. power projection that harks to his idol, President McKinley (1897–1901), who oversaw the conquest of Hawaii and the Philippines in an effort to extend U.S. power into Asia. Meanwhile, Japan’s $550 billion commitment to American infrastructure will effectively help to build the machinery of U.S. energy dominance.

This direction poses several risks for Japan. Just as Tokyo prepares in April to launch a mandatory emissions trading system, Washington has begun withdrawing from the agreements that underpin global carbon credit markets. The oil and gas projects that Trump wants Japan to invest in are not cheap and arguably there is better value elsewhere.

The biggest risk, however, may be political fragility. A string of Democratic victories in local elections in 2025 indicates voter unease with Trump’s domestic and foreign policies, giving his critics momentum heading into the 2026 midterms and raising questions about the durability of the president’s agenda.