This past summer, Japan faced soaring electricity demand due to record heat, straining the nation’s power grid. However, disruptions were averted through interregional electricity transfers and increased thermal plant output.

For winter 2024/25, METI expects a calmer situation. The official outlook by OCCTO, which was made last month, sees capacity reserve margins exceeding 3% across all regions, signaling stable supply. Consequently, METI will not call for energy conservation measures. 

Still, structural challenges – aging thermal plants and risks of equipment failures – underscore lingering vulnerabilities in Japan’s power system. In addition to volatility in the price and supply of LNG, sudden cold snaps and natural disasters have affected the electricity system almost every year this decade. Only the occasional nuclear reactor restart in the past two years has avoided technical glitches and delays.

To address these issues, METI is expanding LNG fuel purchasing support and directing power companies to enforce strict safety protocols and secure additional capacity. This will build on the measures that worked well last winter, 2023/24, when electricity price and supply volatility remained moderate. The upcoming winter, however, promises a different weather pattern.