Japan is experiencing a dramatic shift in its energy landscape. LNG imports have been on a downward trend in the past several years due to shrinking domestic demand, and this looks set to continue. Total LNG imports in 2024 were 65.9 million tons, around the same volume as FY2023, when there was a slight decrease from the previous year.

By 2030, total LNG demand could drop to 50 million tons, with more aggressive estimates suggesting even 30 million tons. In response, major Japanese players are adapting to these new market conditions, with ambitions to become key traders in LNG markets across Asia.

None of this is accidental. In 2020, METI unveiled its “New Strategy for International Resources” that set a target to handle 100 million tons of LNG a year by FY2030. That target includes LNG volumes to be traded to third countries amid the building of a strong international sales network.

Such plans come at an opportune time for Japan. Global LNG demand is set to rise, and if production doesn’t meet this new demand, prices will of course rise. In order to better understand the situation and forecast the future, Japan NRG takes a closer look at recent developments and strategies in the LNG market.