Japan’s LNG imports are on the cusp of a paradigm shift. Trade and geopolitical ties are likely to follow.

For most of the last five decades, Japan has been the world’s leading LNG buyer and an industry trend-setter. That strategy’s central pillar was the diversity of its suppliers. Since pioneering the LNG trade in the 1970s and 80s – after oil shocks yet again exposed its energy vulnerability – Japan carefully built a procurement portfolio spanning nearly every major exporter. Last year, LNG cargoes from 20 nations entered Japanese ports.

This diversification’s value has been demonstrated repeatedly. When Japan pushed back against restrictive destination clauses – and major Middle Eastern sellers refused to bend – Tokyo simply let long-term contracts lapse and shifted purchases and investments elsewhere. Even amid COVID disruptions, Panama Canal congestion and sanctions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Japan’s LNG deliveries rarely missed.

China, now overtaking Japan as the world’s top LNG buyer, has taken note. Its portfolio reflects the same diversified logic, allowing Beijing to shrug off tariff battles with the U.S. when it comes to gas supply.

By contrast, Japan’s options are poised to narrow sharply. In the past year alone, Japanese buyers have contracted at least 8.5 Mtpa of LNG from U.S. suppliers. JERA accounts for 5.5 Mtpa of that and aims to triple its U.S. intake to 10 Mtpa by the early 2030s.

And this comes before factoring in the investments and offtakes expected under the Trump Doctrine. The U.S. president has made clear there are no allies – only those who pay protection fees and those who do not. A sizable slice of a $550 billion “deal” struck in Tokyo in October is expected to channel Japanese capital into Alaskan and other American LNG facilities. Japanese firms have already signaled around 2 Mtpa of potential offtake through Letters of Intent. If the Alaska LNG project reaches FID, that figure is likely to rise.

Assuming imports stay near current levels, new and existing contracts would propel the U.S. into the position of Japan’s largest – or a very close second – LNG supplier within five to six years. The U.S. share would jump from 5% at the start of this decade to more than 25% by 2030.