Over the past six months, among the G7 countries, LNG has turned from an undesirable though grudgingly accepted fossil fuel to a crucial bargaining chip in trade negotiations with President Trump, who demands that Japan and other allies buy more of the super-chilled fuel.

With his unabashed fondness for fossil fuels, much unlike Biden’s administration, Trump thinks more LNG sales can help bridge the $69 billion trade deficit that the U.S. runs with Japan. Toward that goal, in June, companies such as JERA and Kyushu Electric saw the writing on the wall and were eager to announce long-term LNG deals with the U.S.

In addition to appeasing Trump, buying LNG from the U.S. brings other advantages, such as no resale restrictions to third parties. And such sales help Japan ease its dependence on LNG imports from Australia (40% of total imports), as well as Russia (10%), trade with which has been complicated due to sanctions.

Beyond boosting the U.S. LNG sales in general, Trump is keen to develop the country’s Arctic region, which he says is a new frontier to help cement America’s return to ‘greatness’. Key to these plans is the long-stalled Alaska LNG project, which calls for exporting natural gas from Alaska to Asia.

That project’s price tag is a hefty $44 billion, partly because it will require building a lengthy pipeline to carry the gas from northern Alaska to a port in the south, where it would be liquified and put on a vessel to Asia. Foreign support is seen as crucial for the project to go ahead both for offtake and financing reasons. Japan, already the top direct foreign investor in the U.S., is encouraged by the White House to play a leading role on the Alaska project.

Japanese companies, however, remain cautious – not convinced the vast required investment will pay off or that the project will meet the touted deadlines. There’s also the perennial threat of a change of administration – and with it, a change of stance on this project and the broader U.S. LNG export narrative.