Japan’s wind power sector, despite its vast potential, remains tethered to a labyrinthine approval process. While the country’s solar industry has surged since the introduction of feed-in tariffs in 2012 – adding over 70 GW of capacity – wind power has struggled to keep pace. As of late 2023, Japan’s installed wind capacity stood at just 5.2 GW, spread across 2,600 turbines.

For a country keen on reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuels, this underwhelming result stems largely from a lack of time limits in the regulatory process, particularly the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). More than one wind project in Japan has required over 3,000 days (i.e. close to 8.5 years) to gain final EIA approval, according to a new report by Japan NRG.

The good news is that Japan’s pipeline of onshore and offshore wind projects is more than full. Close to 100 GW of capacity is registered in the EIA system at present. And while some of the projects overlap in terms of siting, or face tricky community and technical issues, Japan NRG’s research indicates that about a third of that capacity should be able to navigate the EIA process by the end of this decade.

Securing EIA is only half the battle. Wind developers also face difficulties in finding qualified staff, securing supply chains, prices, and more. Still, regulation will play a significant role in determining how quickly the wind power sector will scale up and make a meaningful contribution to the nation’s electricity mix (vs. 1.1% in FY2023). Understanding the timelines of each EIA stage is key.

Most of the figures in this analysis are taken from the recently published Japan NRG special report, “Environmental Impact Assessment for Wind Power in Japan.”