
June 19, 2023
NEWS
TOP
ENERGY TRANSITION & POLICY
ELECTRICITY MARKETS
OIL, GAS & MINING
ANALYSIS
JAPANESE PEROVSKITE SOLAR STARTUPS:
LUCRATIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES?
Japan can take the lead in the next stage of solar tech, with the perovskite solar cell (PSC). Globally, university startups have led PSC development, but in Japan established manufacturers dominate. Yet, Japan has two PSC startups; one has been a successful fundraiser. Whether international investors will be able to pour financing into Japan’s PSC venture pioneers, however, remains to be seen.
WHAT’S CHANGED IN THREE YEARS? A REVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR SINCE JAPAN NRG LAUNCHED
Japan NRG published its first report three years ago. A lot has since changed in terms of policies and corporate actions, but also in the report’s style and content. Looking back at the first issues of Japan NRG, we see how many of the stories and narratives are familiar today.
Let’s take a trip down memory lane to review what were the big issues and stories when Japan NRG first launched, and give an update on those developments.
GLOBAL VIEW
A wrap of top energy news from around the world.
EVENTS SCHEDULE
A selection of events to keep an eye on in 2023.
PUBLISHER
K. K. Yuri Group
Editorial Team
Yuriy Humber (Editor-in-Chief)
John Varoli (Senior Editor, Americas)
Mayumi Watanabe (Japan)
Wilfried Goossens (Events, global)
Kyoko Fukuda (Japan)
Filippo Pedretti (Japan)
Regular Contributors
Chisaki Watanabe (Japan)
Takehiro Masutomo (Japan)
Events
SUBSCRIPTIONS & ADVERTISING
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OFTEN USED ACRONYMS
|
METI |
The Ministry of Energy, |
mmbtu |
Million British Thermal Units | |
|
MoE |
Ministry of Environment |
mb/d |
Million barrels per day | |
|
ANRE |
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy |
mtoe |
Million Tons of Oil Equivalent | |
|
NEDO |
New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization |
kWh |
Kilowatt hours (electricity generation volume) | |
|
TEPCO |
Tokyo Electric Power Company |
FIT |
Feed-in Tariff | |
|
KEPCO |
Kansai Electric Power Company |
FIP |
Feed-in Premium | |
|
EPCO |
Electric Power Company |
SAF |
Sustainable Aviation Fuel | |
|
JCC |
Japan Crude Cocktail |
NPP |
Nuclear power plant | |
|
JKM |
Japan Korea Market, the Platt’s LNG benchmark |
JOGMEC |
Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security | |
|
CCUS |
Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage | |||
|
OCCTO |
Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators | |||
|
NRA |
Nuclear Regulation Authority | |||
|
GX |
Green Transformation |

Japan to kickstart GX strategy this month by making Sapporo a ¥40 bln environmental hub
(Nikkei, June 17)
TAKEAWAY: It should be no surprise that the govt is seeking to pair its national industrial strategy, which is heavily tilted to semiconductors, with its energy and climate ambitions. This should be positive. After all, Hokkaido is known to have the biggest renewables potential of all Japanese regions, largely thanks to its flatter land and offshore wind resources. However, Hokkaido’s industrial demand never required such large additions in energy supply. Meanwhile, transporting power halfway across the country to the Tokyo area or beyond is expensive and likely to result in significant energy losses. Thus, marrying energy-intensive industries with locally produced renewables resources makes sense. The challenge will be in tailoring the variable output of solar and wind generators with industrial demand. It’s likely that some form of baseload, such as through the restart of the Tomari NPP in southern Hokkaido, will also be required.
Panasonic calls for creation of Scope 4 to represent ‘avoided emissions’
(Financial Times, June 15)
Tokyo Stock Exchange publishes changes for its Carbon Credit Market
(Company statement, June 9)
TAKEAWAY: After a five-month demonstration project stage last fiscal year, carbon trading was due to start in the slightly upgraded “trial” mode. It seems that the stock exchange wants to iron out the rules before restarting trading this fiscal year. The current plan is for trades to resume before the end of this fiscal year, while still aiming for full operation in FY2026. TSE believes that transparency and clear rules are needed in order to enroll participants and grow the market’s scale.
Govt clarifies structure of impact assessment of wind power station on fisheries
(Japan NRG, June 16)
TAKEAWAY: Japanese Act on the Use of the Sea for Renewables defines the processes for launching offshore wind projects but not “the rights to occupy sea areas,” which some say could complicate negotiations with stakeholders such as the fishermen.
Fish catch volumes comprise a key metric in negotiations as fishermen are able to file compensation suits to project developers on the basis of these numbers and other project operational data. The validity of damage claims also depend on the type of fishing license. For example, the Yamaguchi District Court in 2016 dismissed damage claims by local fishermen against wind projects saying the plaintiffs were not direct license holders but members of a cooperative which holds such a license.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines joins blue ammonia production project in U.S.
(Denki Shimbun, June 16)
JERA to collaborate with EnBW and VNG on ammonia supply chain in Germany
(Company statement, June 12)
INPEX to build world’s largest synthetic methane plant; test run expected in mid 2025
(Company statement, June 16)
TAKEAWAY: The new plant will apply the traditional Sabatier methanation process. Osaka Gas is developing a new process – SOEC (Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell) methanation and an upgrade is possible if SOEC costs are reduced and can be applied to big plants.
Osaka Gas urges METI to launch talks on e-methane carbon counting
(Japan NRG, June 14)
JOGMEC selects seven sites to store 13 million tons of CO2
(Official statement, June 13)
METI offers ¥127.6 billion to seven companies developing storage batteries
(Nikkei Shimbun, June 17)
Toyota to “challenge” lithium solid battery roll out in 2027-2028
(Company statements, June 13)
TAKEAWAY: Automakers are competing to be the first to commercialize solid batteries. Nissan Motor also plans to offer solid-state batteries by 2028.
Sojitz set up a new company to accelerate commercial use of DAC tech
(Company statement, June 12)
Itoki starts trading J-Credit in e-dash carbon offset marketplace
(Company statement, June 12)
Kaneka to raise solar battery component prices by 20%
(Company statement, June 13)
JERA and international partners set up Trusted Energy Interoperability Alliance
(New Energy Business, June 12)
Nuclear regulation chief to visit ALPS water release site in Fukushima
(Japan NRG, June 14)
TAKEAWAY: The water release is likely to start after IAEA director general Grossi’s visit to Japan early next month. While Grossi is expected to meet with PM Kishida, it is unclear whether a meeting with Yamanaka is also planned.

TEPCO to invest $7 bln into renewables by FY2030
(Nikkei Asia, June 17)
EEX introduces daily products to its electricity futures, starting with the Tokyo area.
(Company statement, June 13)
Sojitz cancels plans to build wind power plant in Hokkaido on rising costs, local opposition
(Hokkaido Shimbun, Bloomberg, June 13-17)
TAKEAWAY: Setting global and national targets is not the same as implementing them on a local level. It’s well known that Hokkaido holds great potential for wind power, both onshore and offshore. The region’s goal is to be a “Zero Carbon City” by 2050, and companies have interest in building over 50 wind power stations locally. There are also plans for more than 1 GW in offshore wind projects, but just as residents have a say over land-based developments so local fishermen can block the construction of turbines close to the coast.
Toyota Tsusho completes storage battery system and wind power plant in Hokkaido
(Denpa Shimbun, June 13)
Shikoku Electric plans island’s first large-scale power storage facility
(Nikkei, June 14)
Hitachi Energy won contract for first France-Spain subsea electricity interconnection
(Company statement, June 15)
Vestas has installed wind power in Japan exceeding a total of 1.1 GW
(Denki Shimbun, June 15)
KEPCO reports to Fukui Pref on spent MOX fuel reprocessing demo
(Company statement, June 12)
TAKEAWAY: By deciding to remove the spent fuel, KEPCO is facilitating its transfer out of Fukui Prefecture, set to be completed by late 2023. Two years ago, the company made a commitment to the Governor of Fukui Prefecture to do this so that it could get approval to restart its reactors.
Toshiba developing new floating offshore wind turbine technology
(Company statement, June 9)

Vena Energy secures a ¥17 billion green loan for the Kasama solar power station
(Company statement, June 13)
Aquila Capital’s solar project in Chiba secured ¥3 billion from Ashikaga Bank
(New Energy Business, June 13)
PAG Renewables and Toshiba begin operation of 10 solar projects
(Company statement, June 13)
Mitsui begins renewable energy procurement project from Japan Benex’s solar facilities
(Company statement, June 12)
7-Eleven trials rooftop solar PV at store, mulls broader rollout
(New Energy Business, June 12)
MOL and Toyo Construction set up a JV for offshore wind power
(Company statement, June 9)

Newly-elected Tsuruga City mayor visits local NPPs
(Japan NRG, June 15)
Small fire reported at Onagawa NPP site
(Company statement, June 14)

Japan and OPEC to start high-level dialogue after years of stalled talks
(Nikkei Asia, June 14)
Russia pays dividends for Sakhalin projects in Chinese yuan
(Nikkei, June 15)
INPEX, Tosai Gas and Proterial sign carbon neutral gas deal
(Japan NRG, June 13)
Thermal coal, LNG and crude oil imports — all down
(Government data, June 15)
Idemitsu takes 15% stake in Australian lithium miner for A$53 million
(Company statement, June 16)
MOL and JERA sign long-term charter deal for LNG carriers
(Company statement, June 14)
LNG stocks fall 3.4%, to 2.3 million tons
(Government data, June 14)
BY MAYUMI WATANABE
Japanese Perovskite Solar Startups: Lucrative Investment Opportunities?
There’s a very good chance that Japan can take the lead in the next stage of solar tech development. But there’s a snag. While the research side requires vast resources, Japan has closed ranks around its main players in the space to prevent precious knowhow from leaking.
Two of Japan’s leading actors in the next-generation of solar tech, known as perovskite solar cell (PSC), are actually startups. Some of Japan’s PSC pioneers may seek funding to evolve their R&D into commercial products. Whether investors will be able to step in, however, remains moot. According to NEDO, the state research hub that’s provided funding for almost all Japanese PSC research, there is no ban on foreign investment into domestic PSC players, but those that received grants should be “mindful of national interests”, an official told Japan NRG.
The situation shows the difficulty of pushing through innovation along the lines of the Silicon Valley style, venture capital model. At the same time, Prime Minister Kishida’s Green Transformation (GX) strategy insists that it is private capital that will act as the catalyst for decarbonization in Japan.
Still wary after seeing its global dominance in the prior iteration of solar tech usurped by China, Japan’s caution around PSC is understandable. The tiny market share that Japan retains in world PV sales contrasts with China’s utter dominance of the industry. And yet, working in isolation as a quasi national project does not seem to be a viable option either. It certainly didn’t help the country build its own regional jet or revive the LCD industry.
Recently, PM Kishida courted international collaboration as a way to rebuild Japan’s semiconductor chips sector and there were reports of him touting such an approach at the recent G7 Summit. That suggests that the current mystique around the next-gen solar sector could recede in time, allowing private international capital to come in. For investors, what opportunities would this bring?
Background
In the first decade of the 2000s, Japan was the global leader in solar technology as Sharp, Kyocera, Sanyo (now Panasonic) and Mitsubishi Electric supplied half of the global market. Today, however, Chinese competitors dominate every step of the supply chain. China holds over over 90% of global polysilicon, wafer, solar cell, and module manufacturing capacity.
To challenge China’s position, one needs to develop a new industrial ecosystem for solar technology that doesn’t rely on polysilicon. That’s the genesis of Japan’s PSC idea.
PSC makes use of perovskite-structured crystal compounds instead of silicon as the light-absorbing layer for generating electricity. The perovskite layer is thin and light as a film, allowing panels to be manufactured in flexible shapes and sizes. Processed at normal temperatures – as opposed to silicon that’s manufactured at 1,400° C – the technology uses less power and thus has a low-carbon footprint.
PSC, however, has a number of stumbling blocks on the road to commercialization. It still lacks chemical stability and durability. The bigger PSC modules tend to have lower efficiency. This makes it tricky to scale up to mass manufacturing. In addition, the current energy efficiency of PSC halves after 1,000 hours of continuous charging / discharging, which is too fast for commercial applications.
To overcome such issues, developers need to find new raw materials, explore printing, rolling and other innovations to process cell layers, or stack PSC on top of silicon layers to form a tandem cell.
The main sector goals are to:
All this is seen as possible, but it requires hefty sums of investment.
Globally, PSC startups are starting to attract bigger ticket investments. In 2019, UK-based startup Oxford PV raised $80 million from investors including China’s Gold Wind and the German government. Last year, U.S.-based CubicPV took in $26 million from Thailand’s SCG Cleanergy and UK’s Synergy Capital, among others.
Poland’s Saule Technologies, which is seen by some as the current global leader in PSC applications, even attracted Japanese private capital. Travel firm entrepreneur Sawada Hideo backed Saule Technologies with over $5 million. Sawada seems to believe he can help Saule establish its first Asian hub in Japan.
In comparison, Japan’s startups have had a tougher time attracting resources. Japan’s venture capitalism ecosystem is 34 times smaller than the one in the U.S.
Japan’s PSC scene
Most of the funding for Japan’s PSC research to date has come from NEDO (New Energy and Industry Development Organization), which has handed out ¥49.8 billion ($355 million) in state grants. This has gone to both mature market players and startups.
There are two main PSC startups in Japan:
In the last two years, Kyoto-based EneCoat Technologies raised ¥2.1 billion ($15 million) from over 20 Japanese companies and funds including KDDI, NGK Insulators and Toyoda Gosei. Set up in 2018, EneCoat is capitalized at ¥90 million. After raising ¥2.1 billion, its goal is to become an integrated PSC manufacturer, covering raw material production, and mass module manufacturing, which it hopes to start in 2024.
Yokohama-based Peccell Technologies has a lower public profile, even though it launched the country’s first mass production of PSC modules in 2021. Former Yokohama University Professor Miyasaka founded the company in 2004. Capitalized at ¥20 million, Peccell develops PSC mass production by applying print technologies.
The Peccell module had 60 x 100 cm dimensions and a power efficiency of around 15%. The company also researches dye sensitized solar cells commissioned by the government. Unlike EneCoat, it has not raised funds, nor has plans to do so.
|
Established year |
Founders |
Capital |
Employees | |
|
EneCoat Technologies |
2018 |
Kyoto University researchers |
¥90 million |
37 |
|
Peccell Technologies |
2004 |
Yokohama University researcher |
¥20 million |
NA |
While both startups seem to enjoy a positive market reputation, development of PSC is highly risky. R&D takes a long time and is capital intensive. Most startups run out of funds before making significant breakthroughs and seeing their product reach commercialization.
The high-risk nature of the field makes securing more private capital difficult, while the pool of domestic venture capitalist funding is small on an international scale.
So, it may be no surprise that a lot of the big PSC players in Japan today are actually established conglomerates such as Sekisui Chemicals, Toshiba, Panasonic and Aisin. Blue chips have resources and manufacturing capabilities, but on a global basis it is the smaller, university-affiliated enterprises that are making the biggest strides in PSC innovation at the moment.
Perovskite network expands
Japan’s startup funding model tends to focus on big companies partnering with startups to carry the development. In the PSC space, automotive component manufacturer Toyoda Gosei has joined with EneCoat to co-develop PSC mass manufacturing processes. This doesn’t mean that the partner will limit their PSC application to autos, a spokesman for Toyoda Gosei told Japan NRG.
NGK Insulators, a storage battery manufacturer, plans to combine EneCoat’s PSC with its sodium sulfide storage battery systems, and sees potential for PSC-powered IoT devices, and PSC-embedded zero emission buildings.
Since their days at Kyoto University, EneCoat’s researchers have worked with chemical companies to develop raw materials. The Tokyo Chemical Industry has commercialized some of these products. Osaka-based Mitsuboshi Diamond Industrial began manufacturing laser processing machines on request from Kyoto University.
“We had a strong track record in cutting instruments for glass panels and copper-indium-selenide solar panels and this was relevant to the university’s requirement,” said a company official. The machinery was commercialized in 2020.
Meanwhile, Peccell Tech has brought Wakayama-based Kishu Giken Kogyo into the PSC space, seeing a potential to apply the latter’s inkjet printing technology in PSC manufacturing.
In a rare case of international collaboration, Kishu Giken Kogyo has reached out to Swiss Solaronix and German research institute FraunhofaISE to work jointly on improving PSC durabilities. This collaboration became possible because the project was an international research program of several govts.
With demand for PSC prototype manufacturing machines on the rise, there are more market entrants. “We have up to 10 orders for PSC prototype production machines. Over half are from academia and some are from companies planning to launch new R&D programs,” said one manufacturer.
Universities with semiconductor device and electronics engineering departments are keen to diversify into PSC research. There is a clear goal to create higher power efficiency and that’s fueling competition and motivation. At the same time, the government is encouraging universities to monetize their patents and promising startup support plans.
Material science research is also shifting to PSC. In 2018, Chiba University established Chiba Iodine Resource Innovation Center (CIRIC), a research facility allowing university and company-hired researchers to work on iodine application development including perovskite materials.
Business sector participants include Ise Chemicals Industry, which is developing perovskite ink, and Godo Shigen, a manufacturer of iodine chemicals. Godo is presently developing high purity iodine lead as a possible PSC raw material.
Isolation risks mis-direction
Such a concerted domestic effort has created a vibrant but inward-looking PSC sector in Japan. Unlike developers abroad, which are working in collaboration and with an eye on global markets, Japan’s PSC startups say they are constricted.
Both EneCoat and Peccell tell Japan NRG that they aren’t actively seeking foreign investments or ties with foreign companies. “Licensing to overseas companies and receiving foreign funds are very sensitive issues. We cannot comment, even say as much as yes or no. This would lead to repercussions,” one official said.
Identifying other good prospects in the sector is tricky. Universities no longer disclose their R&D collaboration with the private sector, citing data security.
Even companies involved in the PSC supply chain say they are at present cautious about approaching overseas partners or capital.
The problem with such isolation is that domestic development could veer away from the needs of the global market. That’s already evident in the approach to PSC module composition. In Japan, developers are focused on avoiding silicon at all costs since that is seen as key to breaking free from a China-dominant solar supply chain. But in Europe and the U.S. industry players see the tandem cells which combine PSC and silicon cells as a way to boost energy efficiency and entice buyers.
In Japan, there is only one global tandem cell player: Kaneka.
From the point of energy security, Japan’s approach may well make sense. But any product is nothing without demand. International investors would help Japanese R&D develop with an eye on the global consumer. This is a realization that may be finally dawning on the sector.
BY YURIY HUMBER
What’s Changed in Three Years?
A Review of the Energy Sector Since Japan NRG Launched
Japan NRG published the first weekly report exactly three years ago. In this time, a lot has changed in terms of policies and corporate actions, but also in the report’s style and content. We hope the changes are for the better.
In June 2020, Japan was several months into dealing with a new pandemic and uncertainty swirled around energy supply and demand. The country had yet to embrace the language and spirit of “net zero” or “carbon neutrality”. However, many of the directions that Japan’s energy sphere has taken since then were already emerging.
Looking back at the first issues of Japan NRG Weekly, what’s surprising is how many of the stories and narratives seem familiar even today. A number of traditional energy firms were taking early steps into renewables. The major power utilities were engulfed in multiple scandals. Climate action groups were pressuring companies to exit coal. And new technologies were threatening to disrupt established incumbents.
Such story echoes might feed into the idea that in Japan nothing ever changes. Yet, clearly the energy landscape is markedly different from where it was in June 2022. Today, Japan has a law that mandates net-zero emissions nationwide by 2050. The level of investment primed for clean energy projects is several times bigger; the scope of innovation is broader; the attention and sense of urgency is that much greater and widespread. Also, Japan’s actions are much more in tune with those in other parts of the world.
In this piece, we’re taking a trip down memory lane to review what were the big issues and stories when Japan NRG first launched, and give an update on those developments.
Cover of the first public edition of Japan NRG Weekly
Market for crude oil and oil products is shrinking 
A string of mergers in the oil refining sector left three brands (ENEOS, Idemitsu and Cosmo) in control of around 95% of the market. The Covid-19 pandemic further damaged the industry as transport and transit activity considerably slowed. At the time, JXTG Holdings (now ENEOS) chairman Sugimori Tsutomu correctly predicted that it would take until 2022/2023 for domestic oil demand to recover.
TODAY: Activist investors associated with Murakami Yoshiaki have taken a stake in Cosmo and are pushing the smallest of the domestic majors to consider further industry consolidation. Murakami helped Idemitsu complete its merger with Showa Shell Sekiyu in 2019 and has strong industry connections. Cosmo, however, is resisting Murakami’s advice and has gone on the defensive.
Traditional energy firms moving into greener options
One reason Cosmo isn’t playing ball in seeking mergers with rival oil firms is because the company has spent a number of years expanding into renewables and electric vehicles (EVs).
TODAY: The energy group operates at least 300 MW of renewable energy projects already and aims to grow its wind power generation capacity to 1.5 GW by 2030 through onshore and offshore operations. The group is also now pursuing new business directions in biofuels and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).
Of course, Cosmo isn’t the only traditional energy firm to branch out. In our first edition, Sapporo-based gasoline station chain, Hokkaido Energy, appointed a new president to explore ways to enter the renewables field. TEPCO Holdings chair Kobayakawa Tomoaki promised to make stronger investments into renewable energy sources as well as nuclear energy.
Major power utilities (EPCOs) are in trouble?

In the summer of 2020, the former regional power monopolies were facing a number of scandals. TEPCO’s Kobayakawa may have talked about the need to go green, but the company was in the public light for allegedly allowing contractors to cold-call the elderly and manipulate them into switching electricity providers. When the practice was discovered, TEPCO was reported as ordering contractors to falsify recordings of customer conversations.
Meanwhile, directors of Kansai Electric were revealed as bribing at least 75 people in the locality around the utility’s Takahama nuclear station to be favorably disposed to the plant’s restart. In a highly unusual move, Japan’s top newspaper by circulation, the Yomiuri Shimbun, lambasted Kansai Electric in particular for its actions and called for a drastic overhaul of corporate culture.
The scandals helped push more households and business subscribers to switch suppliers to new market entrants. Japan NRG Weekly’s first-ever analysis text, published June 19, 2020, noted none of the EPCOs featured in the Top 10 best electricity retailers in a ranking compiled by aggregator site Denryko Kaisha Hack. Consumers turned from EPCOs to companies like Tokyo Gas, ENEOS, Rakuten and SoftBank, according to the ranking.
TODAY: Earlier this year, Kansai Electric was one of several major utilities accused by officials of anti-competitive behavior and cartel-like activities. TEPCO continues to be beset by governance issues, especially around its nuclear station in Kashiwazaki Kariwa. And the utilities are hurting from high fuel prices and constraints over how much they are allowed to raise tariffs.
Despite all this, the EPCOs are actually in a stronger position than three years earlier. The energy crisis over the last 18 months has led to more than a quarter of new entrants in the power retail sector suspending operations or going bankrupt. Many customers have flocked back to EPCOs for stability. However, recent price increases by new players like SoftBank mean that they are now more expensive than major utilities.
Climate action on the rise

Environmental action groups have been pushing corporate Japan to walk away from coal for many years with mixed success.

TODAY: Japanese firms are facing a record number of proposals from shareholders this year, with quite a few related to climate action. Not only non-profit organizations, but investment funds are now asking firms to expand climate change-related disclosures and firm up plans to hit net zero emissions. Among the firms under the spotlight in 2023 are TEPCO, trading house Mitsubishi Corp, and Toyota Motor. The big banks, including Mizuho, are again targeted by environmental groups both inside and outside the country to get tough on loans to fossil fuel projects.
Geopolitical tensions
Russia-Japan relations plummeted last year after Moscow’s incursion into Ukraine, but friction between the two in the energy field was evident even in June 2020. 
TODAY: In line with G7 allies, Japan has introduced a series of sanctions against Russia and vowed to phase out imports of its crude oil and coal. That promise never carried a definitive timeline and continues to be problematic to complete. Oil and coal imports are down, but energy security concerns show that they are unlikely to dwindle to zero anytime soon. The same and more can be said about Japan’s imports of Russian LNG, which actually look set to increase with the start of the Arctic 2 LNG project at the end of 2023 / early 2024.
Pursuit of offshore wind potential
Former Prime Minister Suga’s October 2020 declaration that Japan will be net-zero 2050 led to the creation of a national Green Growth Strategy, which for the first time put offshore wind as one of the top vectors for clean energy development in the country. But this change did not come entirely out of the blue.

TODAY: Interest in developing offshore wind power in Japan continues to grow with many international as well as domestic companies bidding in government auctions for new projects. But the transition from fixing wind turbines to the ocean floor to creating floating turbine technology continues to be a work in process. Recently, groups led by J-Power and Japan Marine United (JMU) announced either mock-up tests or demonstration projects of new floating turbines as part of national development projects. Still, a homegrown floating turbine is not expected to enter commercial operations until the end of this decade.
Out of the blue (hydrogen)
One narrative that has undergone drastic change in the last three years, however, is the future of hydrogen development. Initially pitched by Japan as a fuel for transport, the country has revised its primary application of hydrogen and now considers it initially as a fuel for power generation. Later, it’s seen as expanding to Industrial applications / mobility. What’s more, hydrogen itself has changed “form” in the government’s strategy over these years. Today, ammonia, which is a compound of one nitrogen and three hydrogen atoms, is seen as a more practical version of a gas from the “hydrogen family”. Meanwhile, the debate over the colors of hydrogen seems to be waning and moving in the direction of calculating associated CO2 content rather than categorization by power source.
Prices
One aspect that has changed considerably from three years ago was the price of energy. Soon after the outbreak of Covid-19 global prices for many energy commodities plummeted and demand was uncertain. The year 2020 saw electricity and gas bills drop precipitously, before the volatility of 2021 and 2022 unleashed wild swings in pricing amid numerous energy crises.
Today, many energy conversations remain focused on the cost of deploying one or another technology. Most of these discussions are still based on the idea that generation and demand are constant, and that theoretical pricing models such as the LCOE are applicable in real life. The last three years show that volatility in markets, societies, weather, supply chains and cost will surely only increase. Hoping that a cheap and plentiful solution will emerge is fanciful. If there is one thing that the last three years of Japan NRG Weekly reporting conclusively shows, it’s that our energy systems need to be resilient, flexible, and multifaceted. They will need to deal not only with what we already know or suspect, but also what we have yet to anticipate.
BY JOHN VAROLI
Below are some of last week’s most important international energy developments monitored by the Japan NRG team because of their potential to impact energy supply and demand, as well as prices. We see the following as relevant to Japanese and international energy investors.
Germany/ Natural gas
Industrial capacity might be curtailed if Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Russia isn’t renewed after its expiration. The country’s energy minister said that policymakers should avoid “making the same mistake” by assuming that the economy will be unaffected without precautions to secure energy supplies.
Mexico/ Thermal power plants
Spanish utility Iberdrola will sell to the state 13 gas-fired thermal power plants for $6 billion, which is 55% of its Mexican business. The company is now focused on wind and solar power generation in Europe and the Americas.
Netherlands/ Natural gas
The Groningen gas field will likely shut on October 1. The cabinet will make an official decision later this month. The Netherlands previously aimed to close the field by October 2024, but officials face pressure over the earthquakes it causes.
Nigeria/ Oil
Crude oil production fell to slightly more than 1 million b/d in April, dropping below Angola’s production that was estimated at 1.1 million b/d. Oil theft and sabotage of export infrastructure are major issues in Nigeria, which was once Africa’s leading crude oil producer.
Renewable diesel
Labor costs and commodity prices are hurting the renewable diesel sector. Cargill suspended plans to build a giant soybean-processing plant to make feedstock for renewable diesel. Exxon Mobil canceled a deal to buy the green fuel from Global Clean Energy Holdings, which faces project delays in part from a lack of skilled workers.
Russia/ Oil
President Putin spoke on the price ceiling for Russian oil: “with our OPEC+ partners we make joint decisions that minimize negative consequences for global energy markets when politically motivated economic decisions are made. We are gradually replacing one market with another. Our companies act more energetically, looking for new partners and they find them.”
Slovakia/ Nuclear power
The Economy Ministry and Slovenské elektrárne agreed to support development of small modular reactors (SMRs), including applying for funding from Project Phoenix (U.S.). Other partners include U.S. Steel Košice and the Slovak Electricity Transmission System.
Solar energy
Solar energy parts maker CubicPV raised $103 million to build a U.S. factory to make silicon wafers, the key components for solar panels. The investment was led by the Thai conglomerate SCG, with additional funding from Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy. China produces about 98% of the world’s wafers.
UK/ Natural gas storage
A partial reopening in October of the largest gas storage, Rough, boosted the UK’s stockpiles, but that’s not enough. The UK now has nine days of peak winter demand in storage, by far Europe’s lowest. Compare that to Germany’s 89 day’s worth of peak demand storage.
U.S./ UK/ Nuclear power
Both countries announced the Atlantic Declaration, which is a framework for economic cooperation. Nuclear power cooperation is one main area. The goal is to develop end-to-end fuel cycles to challenge Russian uranium fuel dominance.
A selection of domestic and international events we believe will have an impact on Japanese energy
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NEWS
・Japan govt to kickstart its GX strategy this month
by making Sapporo a ¥40 bln environmental finance hub
・Panasonic calls for the creation of a Scope 4 that would
represent ‘avoided emissions’
・Japan and OPEC to start high-level dialogue after years
of stalled talks