
JAN 29, 2024
NEWS
TOP
ANALYSIS
TOP INTERVIEW: METI DIRECTOR IN CHARGE OF AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE
Japan NRG sat down with Kuremura Masuo, director of the Aerospace and Defense Industry Division at the Manufacturing Industries Bureau, METI, to discuss the latest energy issues and outlook. Mr. Kuremura explained Japan’s strategy on clean fuels for transport, the technology in next-gen aviation, and which countries and companies the government works with.
METI BEGINS WORK ON SEVENTH STRATEGIC ENERGY PLAN
Final approval of the new Basic Energy Plan will be on the agenda before the Diet elections scheduled before September. The existing Plan foreshadowed a greater emphasis on renewable energy. The new (7th) edition will cover a period up to three years shy of the end of this decade. While METI will likely extend the horizon of the new edition to at least 2035, the main trajectory will survive any changes with the country’s 2030 and 2050 commitments due to remain in place.
ASIA ENERGY VIEW
A wrap of top energy news that impacts other Asian countries.
EVENTS SCHEDULE
A selection of events to keep an eye on in 2024.
PUBLISHER
K. K. Yuri Group
Editorial Team
Yuriy Humber (Editor-in-Chief)
John Varoli (Senior Editor, Americas)
Mayumi Watanabe (Japan)
Wilfried Goossens (Events, global)
Kyoko Fukuda (Japan)
Magdalena Osumi (Japan
Filippo Pedretti (Japan)
Tim Young (Japan)
Regular Contributors
Chisaki Watanabe (Japan)
Takehiro Masutomo (Japan)
Events
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OFTEN-USED ACRONYMS
METI | The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry | mmbtu | Million British Thermal Units | |
MoE | Ministry of Environment | mb/d | Million barrels per day | |
ANRE | Agency for Natural Resources and Energy | mtoe | Million Tons of Oil Equivalent | |
NEDO | New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization | kWh | Kilowatt hours (electricity generation volume) | |
TEPCO | Tokyo Electric Power Company | FIT | Feed-in Tariff | |
KEPCO | Kansai Electric Power Company | FIP | Feed-in Premium | |
EPCO | Electric Power Company | SAF | Sustainable Aviation Fuel | |
JCC | Japan Crude Cocktail | NPP | Nuclear power plant | |
JKM | Japan Korea Market, the Platt’s LNG benchmark | JOGMEC | Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security | |
CCUS | Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage | |||
OCCTO | Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators | |||
NRA | Nuclear Regulation Authority | |||
GX | Green Transformation |

Govt drafts framework for offshore wind in EEZ, will set up stakeholder councils
(Government statement, Jan 26)
Japan’s hydrogen market to reach ¥5 trillion by 2050 – PWC
(Company report and Denki Shimbun, Jan 24)
Iwate Pref to designate ‘red zones’ as off-limits for wind power generation
(Iwate Nippo, Jan 20)
TAKEAWAY: Renova’s proposal has apparently contributed to the decision to tighten rules on zoning for wind power generation. In Feb 2023, Renova’s proposal, which included several area options, was harshly criticized by Iwate’s governor on the grounds that the firm failed to include several areas specified in laws on protection of natural resources in its initial report, and failed to assess the environmental impact on the area for the project.
Sapporo City and Hokkaido propose deregulated GX business zones
(Government statement, Jan 23)
MoE to calculate seaweed CO2 absorption in GHG emissions
(Nikkei, Jan 22)
MoE, METI in talks on subsea CCS regulations
(Japan NRG, Jan 26)
Thai-Japan CCS project could hold 40 mln tons of CO2 per year: PTTEP
(Japan NRG, Jan 25)
Sumitomo Corp invests in Norwegian CO2 capture company
(Company statement, Jan 22)
ENEOS’s field study for DAC expected to retrieve 75 kg of CO2 daily
(Denki Shimbun, Jan 24)
Opinion: Japan should lead the way on disclosure of climate risk
(Nikkei Asia, Jan 19)
Mitsubishi HC Capital invests €700 mln in Danish renewables firm
(Company statement, Jan 19)
GE Hitachi advances its SMR project but economical viability is in question
(Nikkei, Jan 22)
TAKEAWAY: Critics of SMRs point out that some designs use chemically exotic fuels and coolants that may generate toxic waste. Thus, while SMR construction may present advantages in costs, there are still waste disposal and environmental issues. Japan’s nuclear roadmap includes SMRs as one of the technologies to pursue, but it is only one of several reactor options in the national strategy.
Shipping, technology companies close contracts on ammonia-fueled ship construction
(Company statement, Jan 25)
Yamanashi Pref to build 14.8 MW green hydrogen plant
(Japan NRG, Jan 25)
TAKEAWAY: This will be Japan’s second largest green hydrogen plant after the 16 MW PEM Suntory plant in Yamanashi Pref that will come on-stream in early 2025.
Masdar, INPEX, Tokyo Gas, etc to collaborate on e-methane study in UAE
(Company statement, Jan 23)
Iwatani, Soma Gas to test delivering hydrogen-liquefied propane gas to homes
(Company statement, Jan 22)
TAKEAWAY: Each project will receive a NEDO grant of ¥30 million. In return, the project owners are required to commercialize their field tests and present to NEDO a business plan. The other three were building a blue hydrogen supply chain in Mikasa City (Hokkaido), pipeline supply of carbon-free hydrogen in Susono City, and carbon neutral hydrogen production and consumption in the Tohoku region.
PXP unveils solar car test drive data
(Japan NRG, Jan 24)
TAKEAWAY: The chalcopyrite modules also recorded 90°C when the car was parked in an area with almost no wind. EVs have a motor that reaches 200°C, as well as power semiconductor and other devices releasing heat. Since a lithium-ion-battery starts to degrade at 80°C, temperature control tech is important.
Nippon Paper commercializes fertilizer made of biomass ash
(Company statement, Jan 23)
TAKEAWAY: Biomass is widely recognized as carbon neutral fuel, but there is no general approach on positioning biomass ash in carbon accounting. Like many other biomass power plants in Japan, Nippon Paper previously was disposing of the ash as industrial waste before using it for fertilizer production. The company, however, does not attribute carbon credit to the ash and sells the fertilizer as regular fertilizer.

Japan launches first long-term decarbonization capacity auction, 4 GW to be offered
(Japan NRG, Jan 26)
TAKEAWAY: With the 20-year income guarantee, the scheme offers a structured avenue for new clean energy businesses that couldn’t be introduced under 1-year contracts granted in the main capacity market auction due to high investment costs. The mechanism has the potential to contribute to investment in power resources like storage batteries and ammonia-firing.
ANRE steps up efforts for electricity markets reform, to ensure a balanced power supply
(Japan NRG/ Denki Shimbun, Jan 23)
NEC and Summit Energy collaborate in power supply and demand adjustment business
(Company statement, Jan 22)
New power market entrants see share of sales drop for 13th month in a row
(EGC statement, Jan 19)
Tohoku Electric should scrap thermal plant upgrade if climate goal fails: MoE minister
(Government statement, Jan 26)
PowerX secures ¥9.5 billion in loans to produce storage batteries
(Company statement, Jan 22)
Photos of PowerX’s Power Base in Tamano, Okayama Pref

Canadian Solar to sell home storage batteries in Japan for emergencies
(Nikkei, Jan 18)
Nikkiso develops pumps for ammonia-coal co-firing
(Japan NRG, Jan 23)
TAKEAWAY: Ammonia causes corrosion of steel and other materials, and although the equipment comes with safety mechanisms, it might not be effective if corrosion causes the parts to break. Nikkiso declined to elaborate on the steel material used for the parts that come directly in contact with ammonia. Their other pumps use nickel alloys.
Hokkaido power utility must acknowledge risks of restarting NPP
(Hokkaido Shimbun, Jan 22)
TEPCO President meets local mayors to discuss Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP restart
(Denki Shimbun, Jan 24)
KEPCO operates Takahama NPP Unit 1 at lower level
(Company statement, Jan 22)
TAKEAWAY: The resumption of operations was scheduled for April 5. Now, the restart will likely be delayed. The company plans to replace Unit 3’s steam generators by 2026 and Unit 4’s by 2027.
Tokyo Gas begins full operation of Aktina solar project in Texas

(Company statement, Jan 24)
Chugoku Electric and Toyo Kohan launch agrisolar farm in offsite PPA
(Company statement, Jan 23)
Orix-owned Elawan to raise renewables supply for Amazon in new PPA
(Company statement, Jan 17)
Kumamoto-based Yamatotaiyoko submits environmental assessment of solar plant
(Company statement, Jan 17)
TEPCO’s plan for Fukushima Daiichi NPP’s treated water discharge in FY2024
(Company statement, Jan 25)

PAJ’s chairman discusses recent increase in crude prices amid tensions in the Red Sea
(Japan NRG, Jan 25)
TAKEAWAY: The Red Sea crisis led Japanese shipping companies NYK, Kawasaki Kisen and Mitsui O.S.K. to halt transit in the area. Japan’s oil purchases, however, are mostly from the Persian Gulf; so, the impact is minimal for now. That could change if tensions spill over.
INPEX awarded hydrocarbon exploration block in Malaysia, will take 25% of production
(Company statement, Jan 24)
Tokyo Gas, Kyuden form LNG-to-power venture in Vietnam
(Company statement, Jan 24)
(Government data, Jan 24)
December Oil/Gas/Coal trade statistics
(Japan NRG, Jan 24)
Imports | Volume | YoY | Value (Yen) | YoY |
Crude oil | 14.17 mln kiloliters | -5.17% | 1,183 billion | -4.1% |
LNG | 6.5 mln tons | 7.2% | 657 billion | -19.6% |
Thermal coal | 9.74 mln tons | -8.1% | 242 billion | -56.7% |
BY TAKEHIRO MASUTOMO

TOP INTERVIEW: METI Director in charge of Aerospace and Defense
Japan NRG sat down with KUREMURA Masuo, Director of Aerospace and Defense Industry Division at the Manufacturing Industries Bureau, METI, to discuss the latest energy issues and outlook. Mr. Kuremura explained Japan’s strategy on clean fuels for transport, the leading tech in next-gen aviation, and which countries and companies the government is working with.
CLEAN TRANSPORT
Q: Are there any common solutions to decarbonize transport in general, or will each sector (aviation, shipping, road) need its own solutions?
A: My feeling is, at this moment there is no single innovation or solution that can solve all transport decarbonization needs. Whether it’s for airplanes, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), electrification, fuel cells, direct combustion of hydrogen, lightweighting, efficiency improvements, or operational enhancements, solutions differ significantly. Therefore, it’s crucial to plant the seeds for various innovations.
Another thing to keep in mind is how the efficiency of a solution changes based on market developments. In this sense, progress in innovation and market realities are interconnected. So, we need to track progress gradually while pursuing various options and improvements.
However, there are fundamental ideas that can apply to various sectors, such as SAF, hydrogen, and electrification. So, rather than developing solutions exclusively for, say, aviation, it is crucial to work on common technological foundations that can be applied in the auto and energy space, among others.
SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL (SAF)
Q: To decarbonize aviation fuel, Japan seems to primarily focus on SAF. But there are many ways to make SAF. Which technology / route does METI support as the most suitable for the Japanese market?
A: The initial focus is on promoting a widespread adoption of established technologies, such as HEFA using waste cooking oil. Then there’s high expectations for the adoption of ATJ, a type of bioethanol-derived SAF. However, as waste cooking oil is a finite resource, and bioethanol is derived from edible raw materials, relying solely on these sources would be risky. There are already moves in Europe to regulate biofuels derived from edible raw materials such as ATJ bioethanol on concern that its proliferation could cause a food crisis.
In addition, to meet future increases in demand, we need to look at ways to produce a certain volume of clean fuels synthetically. This could be through the synthesis of hydrogen and CO2 to create eSAF. So, in a sense, while we’re relying initially on HEFA and ATJ to lay the foundations, we must plan for the future with synthetic fuels like eSAF.
In Japan, this is how the combination looks like:
Regardless of international efforts, it’s crucial for us to increase domestic SAF supply.
Q: METI set an ambitious goal for the aviation industry: SAF use for 10% of fuel by 2030. How will you monitor whether airlines comply with the regulations? Are there penalties?
A: Japan’s projected supply of SAF in 2030 is expected to be approximately based on the estimate that domestic SAF manufacturers can supply 1.92 million liters. This is more than the expected demand from airlines. Therefore, we believe that the 10% target is quite feasible. Additionally, together with the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), we are conducting public-private discussions. There are ways to increase SAF volumes further, and we are looking at various forms of support, including for large-scale facility investments and tax breaks.
Specific conditions are being worked out by the MLIT, but the 10% target will be applied within the Civil Aeronautics Law, which all airlines are expected to comply with. As METI, we’ll enforce the regulation under the Energy Supply Structure Enhancement Act and also actively support the supply side.
Q: By 2030, how much of Japan’s SAF will come from domestic/overseas sources?
A: The 1.92 million liters demand number for 2030 is essentially based on the assumption that it is all or largely domestically produced SAF.
Initially, the focus is on boosting domestic SAF production. But our industrial policy is not limited to providing SAF for Japan only. We believe there will be significant opportunities for Japan to supply SAF in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. Thus, our goal is to promote the enhancement of Japanese refinery tech and other related facilities, via large capital investments and tax incentives, to meet demand in the broader Asian market.
We consider it crucial to expand the refining industry beyond domestic oil refineries, to engage in overseas ventures and get evolved in the green chemicals industry. In this sense, we believe it’s essential to think globally. While some products will be manufactured in Japan, others may be produced overseas.
Additionally, with hydrogen-derived products like eSAF, we anticipate exploring various approaches, such as importing green hydrogen to produce SAF domestically. We also support the development, demonstration, and certification of technologies related to SAF from non-edible sources, such as next-generation ethanol, algae, and waste.
HYDROGEN, BATTERIES IN AVIATION
Q: The GX strategy mentions a potential development of next-generation aircraft using hydrogen, batteries, and lightweight materials. What’s the status of these developments?
A: There are various support initiatives funded from the budget and the GI (Green Innovation) project. These include R&D into motors, batteries, power generators, new composite materials, such as carbon fiber composites, and more. Additionally, for hydrogen aircraft, there’s support for the manufacture of combustion systems for direct combustion, pumps, and storage tanks. Depending on the project, we’ve already succeeded in prototyping and testing these at the component level.
So, with each component tested, the next step is to integrate them into sub-systems in which the parts seamlessly work together. We plan to demonstrate the functionality of these sub-systems and progress toward integrating them into a complete aircraft.
In November 2023, the METI initiated a program to develop hybrid electric systems and hydrogen fuel cell systems for aircraft. This program is currently open for applications; we expect to work with those companies that show interest starting about July 2024.
Q: In the U.S., startups like Universal Hydrogen, ZeroAvia, and H2FLY have completed test flights using liquid hydrogen fuel. Some have formed partnerships with Japanese airlines. How does the Japanese government view the development of this technological cooperation? Will Japan try to design and manufacture hydrogen-fueled aircraft also?
A: Japan already has expertise in handling hydrogen, not only for aircraft but also as fuel cells in autos and for space-related applications. Components for such technologies were successfully tested at the component level. The challenge now is to move beyond waiting for someone to buy these components and actively create an entire aircraft. Although there was a setback in February 2023 with the MSJ project, our goal to create a complete aircraft remains unchanged. However, the lesson learned is that it is a difficult challenge for a single entity that’s solely Japanese. We recognize the need to integrate global resources, and in this sense, we aim to collaborate with various OEMs on both aircraft and engine fronts.
While remaining an essential parts supplier, we also want to be an integration partner. This perspective has been communicated to our existing OEM partners, emphasizing that Japan, through METI, is supporting companies that are not just individual components suppliers.
Q: For example, integration partners with Airbus or Boeing?
A: There are plenty of possibilities. Although we cannot disclose the exact nature of various discussions, naturally, they are based on finding ways to develop next-generation carbon-neutral aircraft. There are expectations that Japan will be an integration partner in these developments.
Q: What about battery-powered aircraft, what role does Japan plan to play in that market?
A: We have several projects for decarbonization. Two are related to hydrogen: direct combustion and fuel cells. Two more are based on combining SAF and electrification. One program is about finding lighter materials that will improve the fuel efficiency and handling of aircraft.
We don’t have any projects that look at electric motor aircraft powered exclusively by batteries. With the current state of battery tech development, including solid-state batteries, making planes that fly only on battery power is tricky – the aircraft tends to be too heavy. So, we are looking at hybrid solutions. However, we actively support R&D in batteries for other applications, like drones and electric vehicles (EVs).
Q: When should the general public expect to travel on next-generation clean aircraft?
A: Airbus has already announced plans to bring to market a hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft by 2035 and set 2026 as the timeline for demonstration flights. This serves as a benchmark for how Boeing will develop its aircrafts. Additionally, projects in hybrid electric propulsion are underway. I believe these are feasible timelines and we’re actively working as integration partners to make them a reality.
Q: Japan among the world’s first buyers of the Dreamliner aircraft. Will it also be the first to embrace hydrogen-powered planes?
A: Being a launch customer definitely has its merits and, as METI, we want to support the demand side, too. As I mentioned earlier, relying solely on SAF is not an option if we are to achieve carbon neutrality. It’s essential to explore aircraft-side development, such as integrating SAF with hybrid electric propulsion, to look at systems that combine hydrogen and other options. Thus, the recent partnership between hydrogen powered aircrafts startups and JAL, where airlines are involved in new airplane technologies aside from SAF, is indeed a welcome development.
CARBON EMISSIONS & CREDITS
Q: Airlines worldwide have strict goals for decarbonization. Can Japan achieve them?
A: This is an international agreement, so it’s not just a matter of Japan achieving it or not. We must work towards it. If, for some reason, we cannot hit these goals, CORSIA may require some form of payment. That’s why we must speed up R&D into SAF, light weight, hydrogen flight, fuel cells, and hybridization. Japan should leverage its expertise in these areas and collaborate internationally.
Q: Is there potential for Japanese carbon credits (J-Credits) to be used by the airlines?
A: At this moment, even if it’s accepted on the J-Credit side, the credit won’t be accepted under CORSIA certification. So, in a way, if CORSIA acknowledges [the validity of J-Credits], that should be acceptable.
INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION
Q: Which countries or companies are potential partners or collaborators for Japanese aviation?
A: Japan’s aviation industry has a historical connection with Boeing in aircraft development. Therefore, it is natural for us to consider how to grow together with Boeing in the future. We are already engaged in discussions with them about incorporating new carbon-neutral technologies into the next generation of aircrafts. But collaboration with Airbus is also crucial. They launched the ZEROe project for 2035, and we would like to engage in discussions with them.
While we value our partnership with Boeing, we are open to collaboration with various countries and companies. We want to ensure that our involvement is not limited to Japan but extends to partnerships on an international level.
Q: One option often touted as a way for Japan to lower its transport emissions quickly is to import more bioethanol and mix it with petroleum fuels. In many countries, the bioethanol blend ratio is 10%, but in Japan the ratio is much lower. Will this change?
A: Brazil and the U.S. have a surplus of corn and would like to sell some of this excess to Japan. If Japan can obtain it at a reasonable cost, going with this approach is entirely feasible.
However, relying solely on imported bioethanol poses significant risks. Especially in Europe, there is a heightened concern about edible fuels, specifically around biofuels created from sources that can also be used for food. This could lead to regulation that restricts the use of food-derived fuels in Europe’s aviation infrastructure. That would make it challenging for us if aircraft that use such fuels cannot fly to European countries.
We have no intention to decline the use of Brazilian or American [biofuel] products. The emphasis from our side, however, is on a diversified portfolio. There is no practical one-stop solution. From this perspective, international cooperation is highly encouraged.
By JAPAN NRG TEAM
METI Begins Work on the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan
Japan needs more practical steps to revive nuclear power. Energy mix planning should not be only about supply, but also demand. And, METI’s view that electricity consumption in Japan will decline is wrong.
Those are some initial points raised by experts that were selected by METI to help draft the country’s next Basic (Strategic) Energy Plan. The document is revised every three years and serves as the basis for both state and private efforts. It will enter its 7th edition this year once a draft is released in late spring to early summer. Work on this draft has officially begun.
Final approval of the new Basic Energy Plan will be on the agenda before the Diet elections that are scheduled before September 2024. It will be followed by Cabinet approval.
National strategies for the energy sector often serve as idealized projections that set a course rather than precise roadmaps. Still, Japan’s current Basic Energy Plan foreshadowed a greater government emphasis on renewable energy and the emergence of a new electricity source: the co-firing of hydrogen / ammonia. It also served as the framework on which the government based its United Nation’s commitment to reducing emissions 46% by FY2030.
The new edition of the Plan will cover a period that ends just three years shy of the end of this decade, but METI will likely extend the horizon of the 7th edition to at least 2035. The main trajectory, however, will survive drastic changes with the country’s 2030 and 2050 commitments due to remain in place.
As government officials struggle to marry climate commitments with energy realities, Japan NRG looks at the status of the current discussions hosted by METI.
First meeting
Official discussions on revisions to the Plan first aired in public on December 18, when the Strategic Policy Committee – under the auspices of the Advisory Committee for ANRE – held its first meeting on the matter.
From METI’s perspective, the important context for a revision of the Plan was the change in international circumstances since 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a range of economic sanctions against Moscow that disrupted energy markets, and the recent spike in tensions in the Middle East. The events confirmed the government resolve to focus on energy security as the primus inter pares of Japan’s four energy priorities.
Among the options available to the country to bolster its energy security, the Strategic Policy Committee noted the importance of nuclear energy and the greater global endorsement that the tech is receiving lately. At COP28 last year, for example, 22 nations including Japan pledged to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050.
The meeting also noted that the government gained approval in 2023 for its two headline decarbonization bills, namely the GX Promotion Bill and GX Decarbonization Power Supply Bill. The Cabinet also endorsed the Strategy for promoting transition to a decarbonized growth-oriented economic structure (July 2023).
However, there’s now a sense of urgency around creating practical guidelines for new decarbonization technologies and sectors that are vital for projects to move from paper into reality. At the top of METI’s agenda is streamlining the legal frameworks for hydrogen, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and energy conservation.
Expert opinions: new ideas
During the December meeting, Strategic Policy Committee members were given the chance to comment on the next Plan. They pointed out that the energy landscape is changing faster than forecasted, in part to due to AI and other technology-driven innovations, and that these changes will lead to increased power demand.
Takeda Yoko (Executive Officer at Mitsubishi Research Institute) shared a preliminary calculation that, due to the popularization of information technology, the power consumption of the communications industry could increase nine-fold from 2020 to 2040. Thus, METI needs to secure sufficient power supply, especially for the semiconductor industry.
One of the underlying tenets of the current 6th Basic (Strategic) Energy Plan was that Japan’s electricity demand will decline by 10% during this decade.
Another structural change to the Plan proposed by experts was a rethinking of the approach that an “energy mix” is inherently a supply side issue. METI should consider a demand-side energy mix that takes into account the increasing role in the power systems played by solar and wind (i.e. intermittent energy sources).
Some experts warned that variable renewable energy sources are not the only ones that face supply disruptions. Committee members Endo Noriko (Keio University Global Research Institute) and Professor Yamaguchi Akira (School of Engineering, University of Tokyo) pointed out that Japan has so far met its energy mix goals, but its thermal power facilities are becoming less reliable and stable. For example, they’ve been vulnerable to the vicissitudes of geopolitical tensions in the past two years and this trend has to be addressed, the experts said.
Nuclear comeback
The role of nuclear energy was the topic that drew the most comments. Committee members said that the role played by nuclear power facilities was underemphasized in Japan. In early 2023, when eastern Japan was facing rising electricity bills due to high fossil fuel prices, Kansai Electric in western Japan was the only utility to keep costs relatively stable thanks to nuclear plants making up a significant part of its portfolio.
Experts worry what will happen to Japan’s nuclear assets as they age and license terms expire over the next 15-20 years. Japan should revise the nuclear policy to ensure continued growth of the industry as this ensures energy self-sufficiency, said Kudo Teiko (board director of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp). Experts criticized the government for speaking a lot about promoting nuclear energy but taking little action, which has made it difficult for nuclear operators to make decisions.
Experts were almost unanimous in asking METI to speed up the restarts of nuclear plants, in writing strategies to build new nuclear facilities and not waiting for new reactor technologies to fully develop. They also asked officials to step up measures to resolve intermediate nuclear waste storage and fuel recycling issues.
Committee member Sumi Shuzo (executive adviser of Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance) noted that the restart of reactors to date has been exclusively in the west of Japan. If a significant natural disaster were to occur, the nuclear gap between east and west of the country would be exacerbated, Shuzo said.
METI responded by saying that too many thermal power stations are situated in the Tokyo Bay area. If a severe earthquake were to hit the capital, many thermal power plants would close. With no nuclear reactor capacity online in eastern Japan, the region would surely face a major blackout. The volume of electricity that can be transferred between regions, especially between eastern and western Japan where grids run at different frequencies, is limited.
Hydrogen expectations
The panelists also presented policy ideas not directly related to the energy strategy. Regarding hydrogen, METI officials noted that there was a limit as to what fiscal budgets could do to spur the growth of hydrogen consumption.
Committee member Terasawa Tatsuya (Chairman and CEO of The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)) said more regulatory schemes are needed to encourage the consumer adoption of hydrogen solutions. Government policy should focus on promoting local hydrogen production and subsidize it to improve self sufficiency, said Kudo.
To counter earthquake risk, Sugimoto Tatsuji (governor of Fukui Prefecture) said that hydrogen supply bases should be built along both the Sea of Japan coast and the Pacific coast, and be connected by pipelines.
Conclusions
The discussion by committee members is structured as a dialog, but oftentimes the comments made by experts are a reflection of the thinking and intentions inside METI. In this sense, it’s no surprise that nuclear power was given such detailed attention, especially since the ministry sees it as a core tool of energy security.
However, certain aspects of nuclear operations are outside of METI’s control, including the restart of the reactors, which depends on regulatory approval and local and prefectural government support.
So, the routes available to the ministry include publicizing more ambitious and detailed nuclear sector roadmaps that would seek to persuade the public and businesses of the need to build new reactors. But how effective this approach will be is unclear.
An area that received relatively little discussion so far was the current target to have renewables make up 36-38% of the electricity mix by 2030. It seems that this target remains unchanged, so METI must offer more ideas on how it will rapidly boost renewables, which accounted for only 22% of the mix last year. 
BY JOHN VAROLI
This weekly column focuses on energy events in Asia and the Pacific, and all that impact markets in the region.
APAC / Renewables
Renewables capacity in Asia Pacific will grow by about 430 GW from 2023 to 2028, which would be 73% over 2022. India will contribute about half of this growth. The IEA expects India to install 205 GW from 2023 to 2028, doubling its 2022 installed capacity, and becoming the third-largest market for renewables globally.
Electricity demand
Global growth in electricity demand eased to 2.2% in 2023 due to declines in advanced economies, but it’s expected to grow henceforth. About 85% of the increase in the world’s electricity demand is expected from China, India and Southeast Asia. China’s power demand reached 8,000 TWh in 2022 and is expected to reach 16,800 TWh by 2050, driven by industrial growth. India’s power demand was 1,400 TWh in 2022, and will grow to 6,900 TWh by 2050, also driven by industrial growth.
India / Coal power
India reported a “remarkable growth” in coal power generation from April to December 2023, increasing by 10.13% YoY to help meet the county’s rising energy demand
LNG supply
By 2030, the world will have 646 mln tons of LNG supply capacity, an increase of 188 mln tons compared with 2023, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Asia Pacific will be the destination for an estimated half of that supply as demand rises in the region.
LNG
The U.S. paused its decision on approval for what would be the country’s largest natural gas export terminal. The delay could stretch past the presidential election and complicate 16 other proposed terminals. The $10 billion Calcasieu Pass 2 project would export up to 20 mln tons of natural gas per year, increasing total U.S. gas exports by about 20%.
Malaysia / Power grid
Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) partnered with Chinese state-owned power utilities to boost the ASEAN Power Grid with high-voltage direct current technology (HVDC), which is crucial in enabling efficient power trading and integration of renewable energy sources amongst the markets in the region.
Philippines / Energy conservation
An order was issued to reduce the government’s monthly consumption of electricity and petroleum products through conservation measures. Energy audits will be conducted to ensure compliance, alongside random energy spot-checks
Singapore / Renewables
The Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) gave approval to Green Infra Wind Energy, a subsidiary of Singaporean renewables developer Sembcorp, to build a 450 MW hybrid solar-plus-wind project in India. The power will be sold to SECI under a 25-year PPA.
Southeast Asia / Floating solar
Floating solar photovoltaics (FPV) is crucial in boosting renewables capacity in the region, with the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand poised to lead growth. Rystad Energy said there are around 500 MW of operational FPV projects in the region, with around 300 MW to come online in 2023.
Southeast Asia / Russian coal
Russian coal exports to Southeast Asia surged in 2023, said analytics firm Kpler. Sri Lanka boosted purchases by 4.5 times to 1.6 mln tons. Vietnam nearly doubled imports to 3.9 mln tons, Malaysia, by 18% to 3.8 mln tons, and Indonesia, by 1.7 times to 3.4 mln tons.
A selection of domestic and international events we believe will have an impact on Japanese energy
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