
FEB 13, 2024
NEWS
TOP
ANALYSIS
WHAT FUTURE FOR KASHIWAZAKI-KARIWA NPP AND PUBLIC TRUST IN TEPCO?
TEPCO is close to bringing back online its last remaining NPP — the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa station has passed inspection and the regulator lifted an operational ban. The restart of Units 6 and 7 would be a financial boon for TEPCO, allowing the utility to cut costs by importing less LNG and coal. The final decision for the restart now rests with local authorities, and that will depend on whether TEPCO can convince public opinion of the NPP’s necessity.
NEW CAPACITY AUCTION SEEKS STABILITY VIA LONG-TERM DEALS FOR CLEAN POWER
In January, Japan’s capacity market marked a significant milestone with the launch of a “long-term power decarbonization auction system” that seeks to partly sponsor construction of new clean electricity generation facilities. If successful, it will help drive investments in clean energy. While the auction system allows dispersing of decarbonization funds beyond renewables, METI is confident it will help to improve grid stability and resilience, and reduce emissions.
ASIA ENERGY VIEW
A wrap of top energy news that impacts other Asian countries.
EVENTS SCHEDULE
A selection of events to keep an eye on in 2024.
PUBLISHER
K. K. Yuri Group
Events
Editorial Team
Yuriy Humber (Editor-in-Chief)
John Varoli (Senior Editor, Americas)
Mayumi Watanabe (Japan)
Wilfried Goossens (Events, global)
Kyoko Fukuda (Japan)
Magdalena Osumi (Japan
Filippo Pedretti (Japan)
Tim Young (Japan)
Regular Contributors
Chisaki Watanabe (Japan)
Takehiro Masutomo (Japan)
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OFTEN-USED ACRONYMS
|
METI |
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry |
mmbtu |
Million British Thermal Units | |
|
MoE |
Ministry of Environment |
mb/d |
Million barrels per day | |
|
ANRE |
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy |
mtoe |
Million Tons of Oil Equivalent | |
|
NEDO |
New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization |
kWh |
Kilowatt hours (electricity generation volume) | |
|
TEPCO |
Tokyo Electric Power Company |
FIT |
Feed-in Tariff | |
|
KEPCO |
Kansai Electric Power Company |
FIP |
Feed-in Premium | |
|
EPCO |
Electric Power Company |
SAF |
Sustainable Aviation Fuel | |
|
JCC |
Japan Crude Cocktail |
NPP |
Nuclear power plant | |
|
JKM |
Japan Korea Market, the Platt’s LNG benchmark |
JOGMEC |
Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security | |
|
CCUS |
Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage | |||
|
OCCTO |
Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators | |||
|
NRA |
Nuclear Regulation Authority | |||
|
GX |
Green Transformation |

Hydrogen hub municipalities set FY2024 budget plans, Tokyo leads with ¥20 bln
(Government statements, Feb 6)
TAKEAWAY: As much as the budget increases, one point of interest is in the differences between municipalities. For example, Kumamoto Pref, which has no hydrogen hub aspirations, seeks a ¥8 mln budget to remove a prefecture-owned FC station, and plans to slash FCV subsidies. However, it aims to expand the “RE100 Area” renewable project budget to ¥658 mln, from the current ¥3 mln, in order to attract semiconductor investment. The Japanese energy landscape is slowly decentralizing as municipalities develop independent energy strategies.
METI Minister calls to minimize curtailment of renewable energy sources
(Minister statement, Feb 6)
METI panel lists Perovskite tariff policy discussion points
(Government statement, Feb 7)
TAKEAWAY: There is another consideration in terms of PSC power commercialization. The METI committee also dismissed claims made by some developers that the amount of lead contained in PSC modules are negligible and will have almost no environmental impact. This decision has triggered PSC developers to launch studies on tin iodide as an alternative raw material. They are also developing technologies to recover lead from the PSC modules as commercialization of tin-based PSC is likely to take several years.
JGC begins field studies of bolt-free Perovskite sheets
(Japan NRG, Feb 7)
TAKEAWAY: This is an interesting development that could benefit more than the company involved. JGC provides engineering services for power projects and operates solar and biomass plants of its own. But its business model is to integrate PSC systems at customer sites and to explore the possibility of selling PSC-generated power through purchase agreements (PPA).
RIKEN-led group improves water resistance of ultra-thin solar cells
(Organization statement, Feb 1)
Iwatani, MHI to test drive liquefied hydrogen transport trucks
(Japan NRG, Feb 8)
TAKEAWAY: Other than liquefying, hydrogen can be carried in methylcyclohexane (MCH) chemicals or ammonia. ENEOS is reportedly developing MCH transport on trucks and the conversion of MCH to hydrogen at service stations.
METI to reorganize metal resource oversight structure in summer
(Nikkei, Feb 7)
TAKEAWAY: The new entity might fill in the missing link, which is the mid part in the supply chains. For example, between lithium mining and refining, and battery component manufacturing, there are diversified processes over which Japanese companies have limited control.
MOL and JX sign MoU to develop Australia-Japan CCS value chain
(Company statement, Feb 5)

Toyota Motor, Chiyoda Corp ink agreement on scalable electrolyzers
(Company statement, Feb. 5)
TAKEAWAY: The benefits of scalable module units include easier shipping, speedy construction, and lower costs. This concept was pioneered by Thyssenkrupp Nucera, which developed a base module unit called Scalum with a 20 MW capacity.
TAKEAWAY: Obayashi Corp is one of the few companies with direct exposure to both PEM and AWE technologies. It runs PEM electrolyzers at its Oita geothermal plant and at the Kiyose R&D facility. Obayashi does not own AWE systems, but it has been monitoring hydrogen boilers and other equipment using hydrogen produced by the AWE tech.
Sojitz among winning JCM projects in latest round of Financing Support Program
(Government statement, Feb 2)
|
Company |
Project |
Country |
Estimated GHG Reduction (tCO2/year) |
|
Sojitz |
Introduction of 196 MWh BESS in Huatacondo PV plant, Tarapaca Region |
Chile |
17,975 |
|
Kanematsu |
11.3 MW mini hydro power plant in Tumauini |
The Philippines |
29,342 |
|
Kyuden International |
10 MW solar power project in San Jose, Luzon Island |
The Philippines |
6,846 |
|
Tokyo Century |
7 MW solar power project in collaboration with power-supply company |
The Philippines |
4,731 |
|
Shibata |
13.5 MW solar power plant project in Kebithigollewa, North Central Province |
Sri Lanka |
6,511 |
Osaka Gas subsidiary KRI acquires battery tech startup SEI
(Company statement, Feb 1)

Japan’s total installed wind power capacity surpasses 5 GW, northern regions in the lead
(JWPA statement, Feb 2)

TAKEAWAY: Despite the great strides made by Japan in solar, which has helped the country install the world’s third-largest solar capacity, progress in wind generation has been slow. The country does not even rank in the top 20 worldwide for wind capacity. The govt hopes that this will change in the coming decades. It has a target of 10 GW in wind power capacity by 2030, by which time total offshore wind power capacity alone is poised to increase by at least 4.53 GW owing to 10 projects awarded or soon to be granted through the Round 1-3 auctions held between 2021 and 2024. Last month, the govt began soliciting bids in the Round 3 auction. Those projects, however, are expected to start operations no sooner than in 2028.
Digitalization to boost Japan’s capacity needs by 5.37 GW within ten years: OCCTO
(Denki Shimbun, Feb 9)
Chubu Electric invests in 760 MW offshore wind farm in the Netherlands
(Company statement, Feb 2)

Tohoku Electric launches operation of wind farm in Aomori Pref
(Japan NRG, Feb 6)
TAKEAWAY: Tohoku Electric seeks to include renewables in its portfolio, which was detailed in the company’s medium-term plan for FY2023-FY2025. These include wind, solar and geothermal, as well as in renewable energy networks, including grid optimization.
Ten major EPCOs to revise electricity prices due to rising transmission costs
|
Company name |
Planned price hikes |
|
Hokkaido Electric |
¥65 |
|
Chubu Electric |
¥38 |
|
Hokuriku Electric |
¥5 |
|
KEPCO |
¥65 |
|
Chugoku Electric |
¥27 |
|
Kyushu Electric |
¥23 |
|
Okinawa Electric |
¥35 |
(Nikkei, Feb 6)
December sees highest trading volume on EEX market
(Denki Shimbun, Feb 5)
Sparx Group sets up fund to develop battery storage in Japan
(Company statement, Feb 1)
Itochu to develop large solar power generation projects in the U.S.
(Nikkei, Feb 5)
Tokyo Century invests in UK’s largest solar acquisition deal
(Company statement, Jan 30)
KEPCO adjusts on-site dry storage facilities plan for spent nuclear fuel
(Company statement, Feb 8)
TAKEAWAY: In Oct 2023, KEPCO agreed with Fukui Pref to transport the fuel outside the region. Yet, KEPCO’s plan failed to show an actual interim storage facility outside the prefecture, leaving doubts. Using such on-site facilities might prolong the duration of spent fuel within the region.
TEPCO detects water leak with radioactive materials at Fukushima NPP
(NHK, Feb 7)

JOGMEC pays lenders €814 million due to Russia LNG project sanctions
(Government statement, Feb 2)
TAKEAWAY: The U.S. has made it clear that it does not want the Arctic LNG 2 facility to become operational as it would significantly expand Russia’s production and export capacity for the fuel. There was an expectation that U.S. pressure would prevent the completion of construction at the site in central-northern Russia, yet project operator Novatek has managed to bring the first phase of the facility online. While Japan, in general, supports the U.S. approach towards Russia in the wake of the incursion into Ukraine, the energy issue is more sensitive. The sanctions against Arctic LNG 2 do not compensate Japanese (or other non-Russian) companies for the losses associated with their investment and deliverables for this project. What’s more, President Biden has recently frozen the permitting of new LNG export projects in the U.S., which allies can argue were a potential alternative to Russian LNG supply. For now, it looks like state-backed entity JOGMEC has settled the liabilities faced by the Japanese banks. How the Japan govt will cover the losses incurred by other domestic firms involved in Arctic LNG 2 is unclear, as is the U.S. appetite for offering some form of compensation to allies.
Japan to impose stricter sanctions on Russian crude
(Government statement, Feb 5)
TAKEAWAY: The U.S. has already revised its compliance mechanism for the price ceiling, and is considering harsher sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. The need to revise such mechanisms indicates that sanctions on Russia have not always been ineffective.
Tokyo Gas expands gas M&T business in North America
(Company statement, Feb 6)
NYK and JERA sign long-term charter contract for a new LNG carrier
(Company statement, Jan 31)
JERA and PT PLN ink MoU on LNG value chain in Indonesia
(Company statement, Feb 9)
LNG stocks at 2.29 million tons, up 6% from last week
(Government data, Feb 7)
JOGMEC, Brazil’s state of Minas Gerais ink MoU on critical raw materials
(Government statement, Feb 7)
BY FILIPPO PEDRETTI
What’s the future for Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP and trust in TEPCO?
It’s been a long journey, longer than the zodiac animal cycle, but the stars are finally lining up for Tokyo Electric (TEPCO). The operator behind the Fukushima disaster is closer than ever to bringing back online its last remaining nuclear power plant after the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa station passed a facility inspection and the regulator lifted an operational ban.
With anti-terrorism upgrades deemed satisfactory, at a meeting of the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) on Dec 27, all five authorized officials supported the cancellation of the ban. This is a major step forward in the NPP’s path to a restart after a damning review of the anti-terrorism measures in early 2021, and other failings, made the NRA issue its first ever “red card” to the utility.
Since the announcement came when the media is less active due to the holidays, the event went largely unnoticed. But it promises to be one of the most important for Japan’s energy security this year, and could help TEPCO shed its troubled reputation that has haunted the utility since the March 2011 Fukushima disaster.
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP’s restart of Units 6 and 7 would be a financial boon for TEPCO, bringing online 2.7 GW of power. This would allow the utility to cut costs by importing less LNG and coal, and boost CO2-free power sales to customers. Equally significant, the restart of those two units would increase the Kanto region’s supply reserve ratio, which is lower than other parts of Japan.
The final decision for the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa restart now rests with local authorities, and whether or not it succeeds will depend in large part on whether TEPCO can convince public opinion of the NPP’s necessity. To do this, TEPCO must continue to show that it’s capable of adequately managing the facility. The company has taken early steps to build local support, but faces a tough task to divert public attention from its association with the Fukushima disaster, the impact and costs of which are not yet fully known.
Restarting Units 6 and 7
Comprised of seven reactors that span the towns of Kashiwazaki and Kariwa in Niigata Prefecture, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP was Japan’s and one of the world’s largest nuclear generating station, with a total nameplate capacity of just under 8 GW. Unit 1 was commissioned in 1985, while Unit 6 and Unit 7 were commissioned in 1996 and 1997, respectively.
In July 2007, an earthquake struck only 19 kilometers from Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP, leading to its shutdown for about 21 months. Unit 7 restarted in May 2009 after earthquake protection upgrades, followed by units 1, 5, and 6. Units 2, 3, and 4 were not restarted by the time of the March 2011 earthquake, which means about 40% of the plant’s capacity has been inactive for 17 years. A nuclear reactor is initially licensed in Japan for 40 years.
All units of Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP were entirely offline following the March 2011 Fukushima earthquake, the one switching off during March 2012, but in 2017, NRA gave approval for restarting Units 6 and 7. TEPCO began the process to obtain approval for its construction work to upgrade safety and antiterrorism features. This work was ongoing at least until 2020.
TEPCO now seeks to restart Units 6 and 7, each with a capacity of 1.356 GW. Both deploy the Advanced BWR design, which is often classified as a Generation III reactor, a step up from the BWR technology of the earlier units. ABWR reactors use a more streamlined and efficient process that boosts capacity, cuts costs, and contains more passive safety features.
Upon the resumption of Units 6 and 7, TEPCO anticipates annual savings of around ¥100-¥120 billion from avoided purchases of fuel for other thermal stations. Operating these two units continuously could cut Japan’s LNG consumption by about 2.7 million tons, or 4% of the 2023 total, according to Japan NRG calculations.
Operational ban
TEPCO’s had to navigate a litany of issues in recent years. In January 2021, problems with the protection of nuclear material were revealed, including damage in intrusion detection equipment and a case of unauthorized use of a plant worker’s identification card. TEPCO also registered malfunctions in Kashiwazaki-Kariwa’s equipment that is there to prevent intrusion at 12 locations.
After classifying those issues as the highest level of risk, in April 2021 the NRA issued a corrective action order. TEPCO was prohibited from transporting nuclear fuel. The company responded by installing intrusion detection equipment and authentication devices.
In May 2023, however, the NRA still wouldn’t lift the order, citing a lack of improvements in the monitoring system and more. In the same month, TEPCO set up a Physical Protection Monitoring Office at the plant to prevent the theft of nuclear materials, as well as sabotage.
TEPCO also facilitated communication opportunities with subcontractor employees to address potential problems. The NRA recognized that such moves enhance the company’s ability to respond to various on-site issues. Other upgrades followed such as new equipment to cope with heavy snowfall.
NRA lifts the ban
On December 6, the NRA released a draft report stating that upgrades and other improvements had indeed taken place, and the pros and cons of lifting the order were discussed. The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP was inspected and a hearing was held with TEPCO President Kobayakawa. Finally, on December 27, the NRA lifted the ban.
Perhaps even more importantly, the NRA also confirmed TEPCO’s suitability to operate a nuclear plant. In other words, the regulator evaluated whether TEPCO possessed the qualifications and the ability to manage the facility. Such doubts are unprecedented for Japan, but they reflect the severity of the problems plaguing the station over the past several years.

Kashiwazaki Kariwa Units 1-4. Source: TEPCO

Kashiwazaki Kariwa Units 5-7. Source: TEPCO
Are local elections needed?
With the regulator’s signoff, there is no technical or legal reason for the plant not to restart. However, Japan has another rule rooted in societal acquiescence. The local city authorities and the prefectural government related to the nuclear plant must give their approval before the facility is switched back on. This has proved a major hurdle for some NPPs.
Here, TEPCO has some good news. The mayors of Kashiwazaki, a city of 80,000, and Kariwa, a village with a population of around 4,500, both say that the NPP’s restart is necessary, something they recently made clear during a meeting with the TEPCO President.
There’s widespread consensus that the restart will help the local economy, which is struggling with an aging population, low births, and a shrinking economy. Such reasons were also mentioned in a petition by the Kashiwazaki Chamber of Commerce and Industry in February, pushing for an early restart.
The prefecture’s economy has also been on a downward trend, with its GDP at ¥8.88 trillion in nominal terms. The nominal growth rate has dropped by 3.5% with a real decrease of 4.4%. Prefectural income fell by 6.7% YoY, totaling ¥6.13 trillion. Per capita prefectural income also fell to ¥2.784 million, a decrease of 5.7% YoY.
At the prefectural level, however, things are not as simple. In September, a prefectural committee compiled a list of safety measures for verification, especially related to evacuation, which are needed prior to discussing the restart. Based on such verification and NRA approval, Niigata Governor Hanazumi can move ahead with a decision. But the governor has decided to hedge his bets.
Gov. Hanazumi was elected in 2022 and saw his victory as a sign of popular support for his pro-nuclear stance. However, he’s now proposed holding another election to confirm that the public trust him and his stated desire to see the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa station restart.
From a political standpoint, this could help Hanazumi extend his time in office at a time when pro-nuclear public views are in the ascendance. But the hosting of an election as a surrogate referendum on the nuclear station restart would set an uncomfortable precedent. Other governors or even cities could follow suit. A regulatory decision will become beholden to political and populist action.
Nuclear industry groups are understandably skeptical about setting such a precedent, which could hinder their medium to long term business planning.
|
Candidate |
Party |
Result |
Votes obtained | ||
|
City |
Towns/Villages |
Prefecture | |||
|
Hanazumi Hideyo |
Independent |
Elected |
674,006 |
29,688 |
703,694 |
|
Katagiri Naomi |
Independent |
Not elected |
196,756 |
7,089 |
203,845 |
|
Poll votes |
870,762 |
36,777 |
907,539 | ||
Source: Niigata Prefecture
Restoring credibility
Following a meeting with TEPCO’s president on December 20, METI Minister Saito emphasized the need for the company to restore people’s trust. Scrutiny extends beyond the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, encompassing TEPCO’s overall corporate credibility.
In a recent meeting between TEPCO and local assemblies, concerns were raised about the potential risks of restarting reactors already shut for more than a decade. Also, the company’s representatives were questioned over issues related to protection from nuclear material, which wasn’t directly targeted by the review, and the insights from the recent Noto earthquake.
More specifically, assembly members raised questions about TEPCO’s safety review process, which failed to detect errors in counter-terrorism equipment in the first place, and the effects of the Fukushima-related cost reduction policy on the NPP’s overall structure.
The cost of Fukushima’s accident looms over TEPCO, and the final price tag is projected to rise to ¥23.4 trillion. TEPCO, and other power companies, will cover the compensation costs in part through government bonds. But where those costs end is still unclear. For example, TEPCO is still incurring new compensation claims related to treated water release.
So far, the national government has gambled on the ability of TEPCO to regain public trust and repay the funds associated with its semi-privatization and Fukushima-related costs. More than twelve years on from operating a nuclear power plant, the company needs to show that this faith was justified, or lose its social license to exist in its current form.
By MAGDALENA OSUMI
New Capacity Auction Seeks Stability Via Long-Term Deals for Clean Power
In January, Japan marked a significant milestone in the country’s capacity market with the launch of a “long-term power decarbonization auction system” that seeks to partly sponsor construction of new clean electricity generation facilities. If successful, it will help drive investments in clean energy and help Japan reach net-zero climate targets.
The new system’s main feature is providing a guaranteed 20-year cash flow mechanism for power sources such as solar, onshore and offshore wind power, hydrogen, storage batteries, nuclear, hydro, geothermal – and, temporarily, LNG. Such a guaranteed revenue stream is precisely what energy companies need in order to be confident to make further investments in the energy transition.
While an auction system that allows dispersing of decarbonization funds beyond renewables might raise some eyebrows, METI is confident it will help to improve grid stability and resilience in times of shortage, and reduce emissions. The terms of the system ensure that any thermal power that gets funded will find a way to abate its emissions within a certain period.
With 2030 interim decarbonization targets not far on the horizon, the government is keen to jump-start the rollout of cleaner energy capacity while also retaining a way to help replace or revamp Japan’s baseload thermal generators. The new auction was launched less than a year after METI officially announced it in April 2023, indicating the urgency of the matter.
The results of the first auction will show if any energy source is favored above others. Preliminary conditions, however, indicate a strong readiness to support energy storage.
Bidding process
While bids for this capacity were accepted between January 23 and 30, in fact the auction process began earlier. METI and OCCTO had asked interested parties to carry out pre-registration by October 2023 to determine those eligible. Results are expected about three months after the bid registration process is completed on February 7.
Auction participants are required to demonstrate an ability to develop and operate the proposed project, and submit a business and financial plan. The bids themselves must be submitted in the form of bidding “units”, which state the price per kW per year. It should be based on anticipated fixed and maintenance costs, as well as labor and taxes. Fixed costs encompass capital expenditure for construction, grid connection fees, and decommissioning.
The first auction offered 4 GW of capacity via two categories: stable and variable energy sources. “Stable” are: nuclear, geothermal, hydro, biomass, and LNG. Other “thermal power” options in the “stable” section include power plants that will introduce fossil fuel co-firing with ammonia or hydrogen. Stable sources must provide at least 100 MW of capacity that can be connected to the grid.
For variable power sources (solar, and onshore and offshore wind), the minimum capacity is also at 100 MW. This capacity must not be tied to other state tariffs, such as FIT or FIP, which would rule out most solar and wind projects, as well as a large portion of biomass plants. Projects in Okinawa and remote islands are also not eligible.
For pumped storage and battery storage, the capacity requirement is lower – 10 MW or more. However, operators of battery energy storage systems (BESS) will need to demonstrate a capability to operate continuously for more than 3 hours a day.
Curiously, the new system is open to co-firing of fossil fuels with ammonia or hydrogen, but precludes the same when the second fuel is biomass. There are other constraints. While METI has offered 4 GW in total, there is a cap of 1 GW on pumped and battery storage and another 1 GW on thermal plants planning modifications to allow for co-firing. Biomass-only capacity must also fit within the latter total.
This gives a clear indication that at least half of the capacity in the initial FY2023 auction will most likely go to LNG-fired generation. This is part of a three-year plan by METI to allocate up to 6 GW of capacity contracts to LNG power plants – both for new construction and units that will be modified to allow for co-firing of natural gas with hydrogen.
The ministry has indicated that the preference seemingly given to LNG is temporary and will be phased out after this transition period. After taking these various restrictions into account, the government will allocate contracts based on the lowest bid price (¥ / kW / year), evaluating each power unit separately. In this sense, the bid price of the selected power source becomes the price at which it will get the capacity contract: pay-as-bid.
Contracts (known as Capacity Reserve Agreements, with OCCTO as the counterparty) will be awarded until the maximum auction capacity on offer is reached.
How this fits with existing system
The new system is officially an extension to an existing power capacity market platform that sits at the heart of government strategy to ensure security of electricity supply. However, as outlined above, the new auction platform has very different features from the so-called “main capacity auction” that OCCTO introduced in 2020.
The original capacity market was born from the need to add more energy security to an electricity sector that was still adjusting to the post-2016 full liberalization of its retail. The changes had prompted major utilities to accelerate the closure of older, little-used capacity as it was no longer economically feasible to maintain it.
This trend, however, was rapidly shrinking the number of power facilities that could step in during times of emergency or unusually high power demand. Hence, officials set up the capacity market to encourage power utilities to retain additional capacity while covering its basic costs through guaranteed payments.
The effect helped increase the degree of energy security, countering the shrinking pool of power plants able to step in when needed. However, it was largely a holdover measure. The contract length in the main capacity market system is for one year only and the auction is held four years before the actual year of delivery. Since the very first capacity auction was held in FY2020, the first payments will begin from April, the start of fiscal 2024.
Such a short contract length provided little motivation for generators to replace or upgrade their facilities and had no impact on soliciting interest in building new power plants based on cleaner technologies. Thus, as a whole, the main capacity market was not capable of aiding energy planners in terms of forecasting power supply for the coming years and decades.
As a result, the Long-Term Power Decarbonization Auction System was born.
Winners, losers
For Japan, the new auction system could be seen as a new bet on renewable power-derived resources – a successor and an addition to the FIT and now FIP tariff mechanism.
Battery energy storage systems will likely become the main beneficiary of the scheme, which under the current law can be connected to the grid as a stand-alone system. This would not have happened without the 2022 amendments to the Electricity Business Act, which now views discharging electricity from large-scale BESS as a form of power generation.
Prior to the revision, the Act deemed BESS only as components of other electrical facilities such as power stations. In fact, stand-alone battery storage systems play the same role as power plants.
While the new scheme encourages investments in pioneering clean energy sources, the current environment has some structural limitations. The long-term decarbonization auction is open to many power sources, but not all. Those facilities that won contracts in any of the previous main capacity auctions are now not eligible, even if they commit to modifications that would reduce their carbon footprint.
The new auction is also not available for power sources that are used for self-consumption exclusively, in effect blocking applications from industry with captive power supply that does not also feed electricity into the grid. Those that do also provide power to the local grid can bid for that portion only.
The new framework is still in a transitional stage, hence it allows LNG plants and those that burn coal alongside ammonia, etc., to compete. Nuclear generation is also allowed, but it faces its own challenges with availability – not through technology but through the decisions of regulators and local authorities.
The construction of new nuclear plants, the restarting of retired or halted reactors, and the extension of operating licenses for units over 30-years-old is based on NRA approval, which can take time and is impossible to forecast.
The new market continues the work-in-progress nature of Japan’s electricity markets, and may well be adjusted based on the results and industry reactions from the first round of auctions. It will also need to integrate with the other electricity market platforms set up in recent years, such as the balancing market and others.
For project developers, the benefits of this mechanism will need to be weighed with other financing options for new capacity. GX Bonds, FIP, PPAs and more are all options, depending on the nature of the project. It will take time to see whether the decarbonization auction is the better route. But it’s surely an advantage to have one more alternative.
BY JOHN VAROLI
This weekly column focuses on energy events in Asia and the Pacific, and all that impact markets in the region.
Australia / Oil and gas
Woodside Energy and Santos ended plans to create a $52 billion global oil and gas giant. Woodside, which is twice as large as Santos by market cap, said it would only pursue a deal that clearly benefits its shareholders.
Australia / Solar PPA
Vena Energy and Amazon began commercial operations of a 125 MW solar farm in Queensland. The Amazon Solar Project Australia-Wandoan, composed of over 250,000 solar panels, is owned and operated by Vena Energy, and will supply Amazon operations.
India / Energy transition
The govt will invest $67 billion in the energy sector through 2030 to meet the country’s growing energy demand that’s expected to double by 2045. Last week, New Delhi said its capital expenditure for the next fiscal year will rise to $134 billion.
Indonesia / Decarbonization
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry signed a MoU with Italy’s Eni to accelerate decarbonization.The deal will develop bio-feedstock for fuels, energy transition initiatives and carbon capture projects.
Natural gas
In 2024, natural gas is expected to grow by 3% or 130 bcm, reports Rystad Energy. Greenfield LNG project investments will slow down YoY but will “remain at a robust level” to meet global demand.
Pakistan / Solar PPA
A 150 MW solar farm in Sukkur launched that will generate about 300 GWh of electricity annually. Renewable energy firm Scatec ASA said the project has a 25-year USD-indexed power purchase agreement with the country’s Central Power Purchasing Agency.
Thailand / Cambodia
Thailand and Cambodia will discuss cooperation on developing hydrocarbon deposits in the Gulf of Thailand in a maritime zone that both countries dispute control of. The 27,000 km2 area is estimated to hold about 11 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and oil deposits.
UAE / Green hydrogen
The Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development and HYCAP Group signed a MoU to develop the production, storage and transport of green hydrogen. The UAE seeks to be a top 10 green hydrogen producer by 2031 with an output target of 1.4 mln tons annually.
Vietnam / Solar PPA
GreenYellow and Fushan Technology Vietnam, a subsidiary of Foxconn Group, inked a power purchase agreement. The operational solar power system delivers an annual average of 6.5 MW of renewable energy to the factory. The companies will also explore energy optimization, storage systems, electricity storage, and electric vehicle charging stations.
A selection of domestic and international events we believe will have an impact on Japanese energy
|
January |
|
|
February |
|
|
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