BY MAGDALENA OSUMI
Even as parts of Asia revert to coal amid Middle East tensions and energy security concerns, Japan’s decarbonization strategy still assumes that large-scale international supply chains for hydrogen, ammonia, e-methane, and CCS can be developed on schedule despite a fragmented global energy landscape.
To support that transition, the government has made coal- and LNG-fired power plants eligible for subsidies under the Long-Term Decarbonized Power Auction (LTDA), provided operators commit to eventually transitioning toward fully decarbonized operation. Across the first three LTDA rounds, LNG-related projects alone have secured 10.1 GW of capacity.
Yet the latest auction results also expose the fragility of those plans. Three hydrogen and ammonia projects selected in LTDA Round 3 were rebid after earlier versions won support in the first auction two years ago, only to be cancelled, delayed, or substantially redesigned.
The LTDA framework assumes that Japan can gradually replace imported fossil fuels with imported low-carbon molecules, including hydrogen, ammonia, and synthetic methane. But building these supply chains will require vast new infrastructure networks, long-term overseas partnerships, and stable geopolitical conditions over decades.
The current Middle East crisis underscores how vulnerable that assumption may be. Japan NRG reviewed the published LTDA roadmaps to examine how utilities expect Japan’s thermal power sector to evolve over the coming decades.