BY JOHN VAROLI
March 2026 has seen the largest energy supply disruption in modern history. The U.S.Israeli war on Iran is curtailing energy production across the Persian Gulf, destabilizing markets, and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, via which 20% of global oil and LNG supply usually flow.
What President Trump presented as a short conflict now resembles a protracted confrontation. Iran is utilizing asymmetric warfare across the Gulf region, raising the risk of prolonged disruption to energy infrastructure and shipping.
With hostilities and instability likely to persist for years, oil and gas importers are scrambling to secure other supplies to cover immediate shortfalls. The last of Middle East shipments to Japan to transit the Hormuz – that set sail before the Feb 28 strikes – are due to arrive by early April. Japan has begun releasing oil from its vast national stockpiles, but refiners need more volumes.
Still, the longer-term implications for Gulf suppliers – and for oil market forces such as OPEC – may prove most significant. The crisis is setting in motion a structural shift in Asian energy procurement toward alternative sources. U.S. oil and gas companies will benefit, but they are not alone. Other exporters – including Canada and Norway – also seek to capture new demand.
For Asian consumers, including Japan, the challenges will be logistical and technical (adapting refineries to process different crude grades). But above all, it will be strategic. Greater reliance on U.S. energy, for example, will deepen Washington’s leverage over trade, security arrangements, and broader economic ties.